TLM update

Talisman’s takeover was confirmed this morning at $13bln. The stock has traded at $7.45 US which is $8+ in Can $. We would say thank you very much and take the 60+% profit.

Here is a chart;

TLM dec16 2014

That is a 70+% gain in little more than a week. Also several opportunities to buy before the big move. Sometimes (very often!) EW does work.

TLM update

TLM dec 12 2014

So it looked like a buy on December 1, just a fraction above $5 but with the comment that it had a little further to go. So, if you did buy it <$5 you should wait un till it gets to at least $7, $6 is too low. One rule in Mergers & Acquisitions is that you should seize the moment in a very opportunistic manner but, at the same time, pay a little too much as you will have to live with the victim or its shareholders. (Think Bear Sterns and JPM). In that context $7 is a bare minimum, wait for it.

TLM, update

The usual then – March 2013 – and now charts.

TLM march 8 2013tlm nov 2014

At the time TLM was about $11, it is now closer to $6. $5.63 would be a potentially reasonable target but there are no assurances as the longer term chart does not speak very loudly. The more detailed look is actually rather promising.

TLM nov 4 2014

On this chart the triangle is much clearer (potentially there are two). At the $6 level both the RSI and MACD are screaming “buy”. Proportionately it has dropped a same amount in the first part down from $24 to $10 as it now his from the top of the triangle at $14 to $6. In each case roughly 60%. The drop now exceeds the triangle measure AND it is occurring perpendicularly under one of the apexes. This stock should be a buy here or above $5.63