Year: 2011

CBQ, the Claymore BRIC ETF and TSX

Hamilton

CBQ Claymore Bric

CBQ, the Claymore BRIC (Brasil, Russia, India and China) is illustrative of what is happening all over the place. Again from the recent Oct 4 lows , the unit price of this ETF has shot up in a very, very, clear a-b-c rebound. This is a corrective pattern meaning that the stock/unit will trade below the low from where it started. In this case a very similar a-b-c precedes this one, starting in early August. To have two such similar patterns usually means that they are of a different degree which is indeed the case in both the blue and brown interpretations. Both should go down soon.

By the way, the TSX is uncanny in it’s similarity. Apart from proportionately smaller moves , the moves are directionally alike. See below;

TSX oct 28 2011

You can click on these charts and move them around if that is easier. Perhaps BRIC should be renamed as BRICC. This chart suggests a high close to 12750 , or just below that.

BTU, Peabody Energy Corp.

Hamilton

These guys use the acronym for British Thermal Units as their ticker symbol , quite appropriately as they mine coal, a lot of coal. Here is the chart;

BTU

They first thing that stands out from this chart is the absolutely perfect B-wave rebound from the lows of ‘09.The symmetry is remarkable accurate to the very minute detail, adding confidence to the big picture count that we believe is operational for this stock and many others. So far the loss from the rebound high is about 50% but there is more to come.

For those that are versed in the Head & Shoulder pattern the symmetry is not quite as good but nevertheless impressive. I believe that methodology calls for a low equidistant from the parallel of the neckline, which would be around $10. The detailed chart supports this possibility;

btu s

The count leaves a few things to be desired, but the triangle , in a manner of speaking, anchors, the sequence to some extent. We should now be completing an a-b-c rebound that has already gone beyond the upper channel line and could continue to the top of the triangle, roughly $50. By that time , or even before that,  the c will equal the a (like right now) and wave 5 can start (or 4 continues as a triangle and then 5 starts).

ELUXY, Electrolux update and WHR, Whirlpool

Hamilton

On July 6, 2011 we put out this picture of Electrolux in order to demonstrate the seemingly senseless ups and downs that stocks are submitted to in the markets. Here is that chart;ELUXY

Despite all these moves it was still possible to put a reasonable plausible EW count on this stock. We know that nobody on this side of the pond owns the stock so we have not followed up on this prognosis. However , today it is the news again, announcing a 10% layoff of it’s workforce and generally guiding down on the “white goods”sector. Here is where we are today;

eluxy oct 28 2011

Unfortunately Bigcharts does not allow me to get the exact same chart this time, so this one will have to do. The projection was for wave 3 to take the stock from $50 to $23 or so. In reality it dropped to $28 and then rebounded to $39. Now it is reasonable to expect a triangle or flat to form to provide alternation with wave 2. Today’s news may provide the “fundamental” backdrop for this kind of action.

WHR

Whirlpool is in a similar position, having lost about 50%. But here there is an outside possibility that a simple A-B-C (in blue) was completed. We doubt it but it is possible. More likely wave 3 is still in progress.

RY, do not second guess yourself

Hamilton

ry sept 23 2011

On the 23 of Sept this was the preferred count for RY. I even called it a buy (for a $5 trade). I never got in and changed the outlook twice after that, once correctly and once not so. The moral is that one should be patient and not second guess oneself all the time. We are our own worst enemies. Here is what happened so far.

RY oct 27 2011

As the 5th wave was extended a normal retracement is to the top of wave 1 of 5, $52, this is also wave 4  under an alternative count and close to a 50% retracement. Soon it will be a sell again.What is not clear, and consequently confusing, is if there was a wedge at the bottom, or a failed 5th. As I was looking to get out at $50 I missed $5 or 11% in a month.

Execution is everything!