Year: 2013

TLM update

Hamilton

TLM march 8 2013

Last time we thought TLM might do a little better from the recent low of about $10 and move up to , say , $17. So far at least it has not reason perhaps to revisit that prediction. Having stalled at $13 the possibility of a triangle presents itself. The clearest part of this chart is the B-wave, the rest is all (educated) guesswork. Stocks dance around with a certain elegance and symmetry that is ,more often than not, hard to explain, so if we engineer this in reverse the possibility that C is not complete becomes very compelling and we may well get the original target of <$8.

ABX update

Hamilton

The usual then, 1 Nov., 2012, and now charts;

abx nov 2 2012abx mar 8 2013

We did not get the big wave 4 triangle, instead we got a smaller one as wave 4 of 5. As a result the possible target of $24 may be a little too far down. In fact the 5th wave down could be complete at just about any time considering that we are already at $29. A buy somewhere here should be good for a rise of about $10 or 30%. Just under $26 looks to be the sweet spot. If it does rise as expected this may itself be a 4th wave of a higher degree, depending where one assumes the top to be, so stay nimble and do not get bullish on gold for the long term.

KPN update, the impossible happens.

Hamilton

KPN march 8

See previous blogs. This is the Dutch equivalent of Bell, all Bells. Government owned and protected by an ironclad monopoly back then. Even made it to “Royal” status just before almost collapsing. But wonders happen. They issued 1.1 bln 6.125% Euro bonds which issue was oversubscribed by 6x. For those that think the Euro is dead this must have been an enormous shock, these are PERPETUAL bonds (first redeemable in 2018)! There was and additional issue for 60 years. All of this thanks, in part, to a little helpful nudge from our very close friends in Mexico. Truly mindboggling but there it is. A buy maybe for a 100% bounce at least??

ABB, Asea Brown Boveri

Hamilton

ABB march 2013

See previous blogs. We got this one right most of the time except that we thought wave 2 was complete at the first time the stock hit $22. Of course things took longer and that appears to be just the wave a part or a wave 4 of 1. Either way it now looks complete so it is time to exit.

The only bullish count that might fit this chart is that of a very large triangle. That would also require a move down in wave e. The likelihood of such a  count being correct is on a par with war breaking out between Sweden and Switzerland.