Year: 2013

PGF, Pengrowth update

Hamilton

pgf mar 1 2013

See our Jan. 29 blog. quote;

All trend lines come together where the cross is , about $4, which also coincides with a possible 4th wave of previous degree. The stock yields about 11% and it used to be one of the most desired income trusts. On balance a buy.     unquote.

Well we got it wrong again. The actual low was at $3.93. In any event if you survived the 7 cents then you are now up almost 20%. Be patient as the stock should go to $5 as a minimum, good for 25%. Perhaps even $7.15, but that is dreaming.

KPN, Royal KPN N.V.

Hamilton

kpn mar 1 2013kpn mar 1 2013 b

KPN is now at 2.51 Euros. This is the old PTT, the Dutch government’s telephone and telegraph monopoly. 2.51 reminds us of Ahold and also ABB, both of which regained their composure in a spectacular way. Who knows if it will happen again but if buying low and selling high is your game, you may want to consider this one. After all there is a very nice  5 waves down.

EWG, Germany iShares update

Hamilton

ewg feb 25 2013

The DAX ( a total return index!) is hitting a new intermediate high today in celebration of the Bank of Japan’s appointment of a more flexible governor and on the possibility of a ex-communist winning the elections in Italy.

If you look closely at this chart and compare it to either SU or CNQ in the previous blog you might start wondering if these are not German companies. How does SU GMBH and DNQ sound? Simple put, all are on the same trajectory and under EW the direction is down. See also previous blogs for EWG.

SU, Suncor and CNQ, Canadian National Resources, updates

Hamilton

su feb 25 2013cnq feb 25 2013

According to Barron’s, both these stocks are undervalued by about 30%. Conveniently they are both at about $30 so, if correct, these stocks should really be worth $40, roughly. Maybe, or maybe not. From the perspective of the P/E ratio for either of these stocks it would seem more appropriate to assume that they are fairly valued and overvalued respectively.

From an EW point of view, for whatever that is worth, both stocks show clear 5-wave up sequences followed by a single down leg and then a B-wave. Clear as daylight. Short of a big triangle forming, these stocks should fall further as the C wave completes. Time will tell what will actually happen but in the meantime you may wish to play it safe. Put your stop-loss order in at the level of the line connecting the lows, or just below. If that breaks things could get nasty rapidly.