RIM update, soon to be known as BB (Brigitte Bardot?)

RIM Jan 31 2013

This is not intended to be a wave count! $13.25 is about where both legs are equal (not including the first down leg). Mathematically speaking the stock came from a low of $6.10. With a high of $18.25 it must have travelled $12.15. Therefore, as this is the first major pullback after a 5-wave sequence on would expect a drop to about the previous 4th wave and about 50 to 62%. The 4th wave is at about $11 and if we deduct either $6 or $7 from $18.25 we get a range of roughly $11 to $12. On balance a buy at $12+ and for dare devils at around $13 where the trend line is, see below.

rim jan 31 2013 sThe a-b-c may already be complete!

SFF, Seafield Resources Ltd.

sff jan 30 2013

This company has been around for a very long time, going back all the way to 2007! It also has a pretty posh address, 20 Toronto street, Toronto. But the performance has been a wee bit lackluster over the past two years or so. This despite it’s stated goal of quote – focusing on shareholder value through its exploration and development efforts in South America – unquote. The main project is now in Columbia, about 100 km south of Medellin. Quinca is the name. We would sell this stock on the basis of the EW pattern, which is either an a-b-c up (in black) implying a low below the previous low (in 2009), or a completed 1-2-3-4-5 sequence to the top followed by an a-b-c down which does not look complete yet.

There are a few fundamental reasons to be cautious as well. First of all the company has gone through almost $40 mln. during it’s existence, $8 mln. just in the last year. There is still $4 mln. in cash, enough for less than 6 months. After that the company would have to raise new capital, not that easy at this time and given the record.  Secondly their is remuneration of directors and key personnel as follows

(b) Remuneration of Directors and key management personnel of the Company was as follows:
                                      Three Months Ended  Nine Months Ended
                                                September 30,          September 30,
                                              2012         2011        2012         011
Salaries and benefits       $ 27,251  $ 53,333 $ 175,383 $  74,333
Share based payments $ 224,333 $ 219,120 $ 480,002 $ 903,020

Somehow I get worried when more is paid by way of stock than salary AND  when huge amounts are paid as consulting fees to related parties,as follows;

12. Related party balances and transactions (continued)
(i) Consulting fees charged by Anthony Roodenburg, former Chief Executive Officer and Director of Seafield. $385.000
(ii) Consulting fees charged by James Pirie, former Vice President of Exploration and Director and former Chief Financial Officer (acting in the capacity of) of Seafield.  $385.000
(iii) Rent charged by Greencastle Resources Ltd., a company that Anthony Roodenburg and James Pirie, director and former officers of the Company, are also directors and officers of Greencastle Resources Ltd. $22.500             etc. etc.

In short, a sell even at 11 cents.

PGF, Pengrowth update;

See also previous blogs from June.

pgf jan 29 2013 bpgf jan 29 2013 s

We were getting interested in this stock when it was trading around $6 and here we are at $4.50 , or so. Two counts present themselves. The one in black requires a large C wave down and the one in beige a double zig-zag. Given how close we are to the bottom no other alternatives are readily availabe. We prefer the double zig-zag, the one in beige. All trend lines come together where the cross is , about $4, which also coincides with a possible 4th wave of previous degree. The stock yields about 11% and it used to be one of the most desired income trusts. On balance a buy.

HXU and HXD, update

hxu jan 28 2013hxd jan 28 2013

Owning the HXD, my only personal position, has not been enjoyable the last year or two. I have been dead wrong on this one but you have to take positions in the context of the present and right now I think the HXD is once again an excellent buy. We have dropped a little below the magical $8 level that it hit after the March2009 lows but the RSI is lower than it has ever been for the past 3 years.

The exact opposite applies to the HXU which looks , as it should , exactly like the TSX itself.