The CAC40 is getting there, just a few more points and we will be at the upper trend line. A throw-over is always a possibility but with the proximity to the 61.8% retracement of the entire drop (see previous blogs) chances are that this trend will stop within the next week or two.
We did not think that BNS would trade beyond $61 for years but here we are close to $70. The precise EW count eludes us, we show two in the big chart, but there is also a third possibility with a large B-wave. For the moment we are more interested in the channel both big and small. For twenty five years this stock has meandered from the right bank to the left bank and back again, only once seriously leaping out of the channel. Again we hit the left bank and consequently we fully expect a return to the right bank and perhaps a lot more.
The chart is incomplete, that is we do not know what it would have looked like if it had come into existence years earlier. We are simple guessing that the $23 high was the end of a 5-wave sequence of some sort, but un till we get overlap ( below $16) the possibility still exists that we are in a wave 4. Even so the fact that we erase 62% in a few months what took a full year to build does suggest that there was a major top. The a-b-c back up may only be part of a more complex correction but it does look counter-trend so new lows should be forthcoming in the not too distant future.
Then – Feb. 15 2014 – and now charts;
Of all the gold stocks FN is signalling the loudest that a potential disaster lies ahead. So far this stock is down about $11 in the past three months but more alarmingly there is now overlap which negates possible bullish alternatives. Given the very clear and distinct B wave structure into the double top a new low should be in the cards, as per chart below.
Our best guess is that we probable started a wave 3 down recently. By the way, this stock’s pattern looks a lot like that of SNC Lavalin.