Year: 2015

TSX update

Hamilton

tsx march 10 2015

We are reverting back to our original thought that the drop in October, at least on the TSX, was a 5-wave affair. The steep and deep up and down movements subsequently were somewhat of putting but after all is said and done this is by far the most plausible interpretation. Only in the event of decisive developments to the contrary we will stick to this scenario. What it means in practice is that drops expected in the yearSleeping half-moons to come could literally decimate the market. Therefore we reiterate our previous recommendation that you only buy stocks that go up! Or follow Mark Twain’s (?) words of wisdom. “There are two times in a man’s live that he should not buy stocks, when he has the money and when he hasn’t”. Today this would apply to both genders.

AU update

Hamilton

au march 8 2015

In our previous blog we noted that it would clear things up quite a bit if this stock were to break $13. It did but not in a significant way and therefore neither of the two possibilities is eliminated. Nevertheless we are leaning towards the idea that we started a new uptrend last year at the low of $7.45. From there the stock almost doubled and it did so in what appears to be a fairly decent 5-wave move (which still could just be a c of an irregular a-b-c wave 4). If this is correct the stock should be a buy here or just a little lower, it has already retraced about 62%. All this is shown in red. The RSI is already oversold.

     The other possibility, which we do not favour, would be that of an expanding diagonal or wedge that needs to complete a 5th wave. Al that needs to be achieved is a new low. Either way (see big picture previous blog) the stock should bounce back to at least $20 someday in the not too distant future.

AU is, of course the symbol for the element gold (#79) on Niel Bohr’s periodic  table of elements just in case you were not paying attention in your chemistry class. It must have been quite a coup for this company to get that ticker symbol.

CAC update

Hamilton

cac march 6 2015 bcac march 6 2015 s

These are semi-log scale charts which compress the most recent spurt up when compared tp an arithmetic chart. The count is not the only possibility. Wave 4 may have simple ended in Oct. of 2014 with a simple a-b-c (three-wave) structure after that to complete the entire thing. The index is now trading at the top of its (pink) channel  and the previous (blue) channel for wave 3 has become resistance.

The fact that this top is occurring concurrently with other tops, most specifically Nasdaq’s 15 year round trip AND at a time when unemployment is running supposedly at 5.5% (just 1% above what used to be considered full employment!), suggests that this may , at last, be it.

Given the above our advice from here on is that you only buy stocks that go up in value. We realize that this may crimp one’s “style” a little but it is a lot safer.