Month: April 2016

CP quick update

Hamilton

cp mar 13 2016

If you sold today at >$185 you would have gotten at least $187 or so. As mentioned this one could go higher by another $10+ but we would caution the longs that this thrust can turn around in the blink of an eye. The RSI is entering overbought territory for the first time in a long time and if the triangle is correct, a drop back to $160 is next as a minimum. By the way, the entire triangle can be moved one step to the right if you prefer.

P.S. Today’s high is at $193.88 that is up almost $9 on the day. This is clearly a “thrust” and most likely  a third wave at that. $200 becomes more likely but I am always too cautious.

ABX update

Hamilton

The usual then, little more than a month or so ago, and now charts;

abx feb 8 2016abx mar 12 2016

Looks like we are well on our way towards $23. That is the top of this “diagonal” and I suspect the end of wave A of a much larger A-B-C. That B should drop to about $15 and then the C can take the stock as high as $35. After that it may be game over for the gold stocks, we will see.

   In the mean time keep your eye on the RSI as it is getting right up there. As we said in the Feb. 1 blog, $22 is probable a good exit point – do not forget that golden rule of trading; always leave something on the table for the next guy. You can try to buy it again at about $15. In the mean time you will be able to tell your neighbour that you made a whopping 175% in a little over 1/2 a year. That is 560% per annum compounded, all from a free blog!

CP update

Hamilton

cp apr 11 2016

We have been wrong on this railway, never expecting it to reach such lofty highs. But then it did drop 42% in the last year. Moreover it did it in what could be seen as a clean 5-wave sequence. Now we are doing the first a-b-c retracement of that drop which should reach the 4th wave of previous degree and /or the 62% retracement level, both at about $200 or so. By coincidence, that is also where c=a. A very nice triangle – in the b-wave position – provides the icing on this cake. We would not wait that long and get out at $185 or earlier. Then the drop continues for , at least, another hundred points towards $100 (about 60% down) or further.

SPX, S&P 500 update

Hamilton

SPX mar 8 2016

I am not particularly happy with the above count. It seems a little contrived or artificial to me, but then we live in artificial times. This index moves roughly 200 points 4 times in about a year, depending where you put the top. That is a lot of movement without any headway, mostly created by Greenspan, Bernanke and the “data-dependent” lady and with a little help from Draghi, China, Japan and just about every other country and also more recently from the likes of C Lagarde of the IMF. Remember that it takes a Pavlov to make a Pavlov dog, and now the New Normal has essentially become the New Abnormal and is universally accepted as gospel throughout the corridors of haute finance. Except it cannot work. It is a bit like the perpetual motion machine which cannot exist under the rules of nature or physics, that is an open and shut case thanks to brilliant minds. Economics has not been endowed with an equal dose of brainpower and is still wrestling with ceteris paribus. Soon that may no longer be a reason to propound blatant nonsense. Wave 3 could take care of that.

By the way, so far at least we haven’t traded above 13646 on the TSX either. That was three weeks ago, a virtual lifetime in today’s terms.