Are we there yet? Russell 2000 update.

rut july 18 2013

The answer is yes, we are there!

At the low in March 2009 this index was at 350, roughly. Today it exceeded 1050, which, if I am not mistaken is a factor of 3x in 4+ years. The Russell 2000 is,by the way, the quintessential small cap. index. Bernanke should run a banner all across the Fed. buildings announcing mission accomplished. But today we hear nothing of the sort. In fact should unemployment drop below 6.5% the Fed. may still continue to spike the punch-bowl if there are too many people leaving the workforce, which so far has been a primary source of dropping unemployment. This will never end. Even if budget cuts etc. cause the economy to grow at a lesser pace than otherwise, the Fed. reserves the right to increase stimulus. This is pretty circular as government spending at roughly a trillion above what is taken in each year is already excessively simulative so why the Fed. should feel obliged to step in is not at all clear. Taking both the deficit spending and the monetary stimulus combined one could argue that the US is now on a super-Keynes trajectory. That is if you leave out one of Keynes pet concepts, that of the Marginal Propensity to Spend (or Consume), MPS in short. The whole idea is that poorer people spend a larger proportion of their wealth/income than do richer people, therefore the government should redistribute income to the bottom which will then lead to a higher multiplier (bang for your buck) and with it correspondingly higher growth. A glance at a chart showing the wealth distribution in the US from TheUnderstatement.com shows how well this works;

Wealth distribution US

According to this source the top 1% own 43% of all wealth. This is 2011 and their are other stats that put this number well north of 50%. 73% is owned by the top 5%. By stimulating the stock market and housing, the Fed. has made the rich richer and as a result of the very low MPS growth is gone. More stimulus, less growth. All pure Keynes.

DJTI, Dow Jones Transports

$tran july 17 2013

The Transports are quite similar to the Russell 2000 (below). It has already hit the upper trendline and it is interesting that each successive up move, 1 , 3 and 5 is actually steeper than the one before. The same holds for the “expansion” of the value. Why this index is doing so well remains a bit of a mystery. Part of the answer might be that it does not contain any shipping companies, which is , of course, where most of the transportation occurs.

Russell 2000 update

RUT july 15 20013

See our earlier comments concerning this particular index. A few months ago our target was roughly 1050 and we thought it might take a month or so. The timing is off by quite a bit as seems to always be the case nowadays; the move was not a straight line but an up/down kind of thing that took much longer, perhaps because the various chefs in the Fed. kitchen could not agree on the right ingredients, taper, or should that be tamper, one day and none the next. In any event we are now within spitting distance of a potential peak. A sell now!

BA, Boeing

BA july 12 2013

Never looked at Boeing, not sure why. The company has been in the news quite a few times. There were some extra-curricular activities of one of the top guys that caught the public’s attention and then there was the move of HQ from Seattle to Chicago that no one understood. More recently there were additional delays for the Dreamliner resulting from battery fires , which appears to be the story today. One of the planes had a fire at Heathrow, it had waited patiently to do so at the double top level after climbing almost 100% in the last year. The miracle today is not that it falls 6/7% , but that it ever got to these heights. That, by the way, is a sell.