CEF.a Central Fund of Canada update

Hamilton

Then, exactly a year ago, and now charts;

cef.a 2012cef.a june 21 2013

We are not sure of anything, then or now, but we reached the 50% target at $16 and then some, all the way to $13.83 (Big chart does not show that low). That target was based on the retracement of the last leg up. If calculated on the entire travel from zero it works out to a bit above $13. By the way, the fund already has dropped below it’s channel as drawn and may already be overlapping earlier lower degree waves. If not already it would certainly happen at <$12 which essentially means that a complete free fall is possible  as it will then be safe to conclude that a complete 5 wave sequence was completed at the $26 peak. Always use a stop!

G update

Hamilton

g june 21 2013

Precisely a year ago we suggested $20 as an ultimate target for this stock. We had a different count then (see previous blogs). This is a better count (we think) and also simpler, just an A-B-C  double zig-zag down for a full correction. From $53.79 to $24.58 is 54.3%. It could drop a little further but the C wave looks pretty well complete within, say, a single dollar. This is a buy with the potential of $6/$12 to the upside. Both the RSI and MACD support this.

G 21 JUNE 2013 B

In the big picture (using a slightly different count) we have a huge 5-6 year flat correction that could be (almost) complete at this point.

g 21 june 2013 2

An ideal target would be in the vicinity of $22. Any rebound from there would be correspondingly larger than indicated above.  The big risk here appears to be that of missing the boat entirely.

ABX update

Hamilton

abx june 21 2013

We got our 4th wave and should be hitting bottom in the next few days as one last 5th of a 5th is traced out. Just a guess would suggest something in the order of $16.50 or so. Note that both the RSI and MACD are pointing up. The yield, by the way, at 4.70% is unheard of for a gold miner. The stock is down about 70% from its peak. A buy (but maybe just for a good trade, we shall see).