IMN, Inmet Mining(from two days ago)

Hamilton

Last time we suggested the stock was a buy as 5 –waves down were complete. Then a sell as an a-b-c was complete. From there the stock had a yellow light, i.e. who knows. In the meantime a very nice triangle has developed, see below;

IMN June 2011

Provided the stock stays below $72.50 (about where we sold) this triangle can only be a B-wave triangle and consequently the next leg should be C down to around $45. or 30%. We could still be in c of the triangle which then cannot exceed $74, not likely but possible. This would simple make the whole exercise more drawn out.

PS Today’s high was $71.46

WAG, Walgreen.

Hamilton

wag b wag s

The charts are the same except for the time-frame. This is such an absolutely perfect parallelogram that I had to do it twice to be sure.

You DO NOT WANT TO OWN this stock right here. A few dollars higher perhaps all though you would be approaching the double-top level, always a dangerous place to stay. This is an excellent example of a B-wave and if it is the stock will go south rapidly.

DAX , once again.

Hamilton

DAX jul 2011

Why you should not own the DAX (anymore).

1. You are 500 points away from the upper constraint line and  5000 points above the lower one. This is a 10 to 1 ratio against you.

2. The most probable count is that we are in a flat that ultimately targets about 3000. Even assuming the unlikely event (not seen anywhere else) that we are in a huge triangle the target is still 40% down from here to about 4800.

3. For some reason the DAX is the ONLY index to have performed so well so far. Even the EWG(see below) did not get close.It just narrowly exceeded our expectation of 62%.

EWG jul 2011

4. No other European index did remotely as well as the DAX . Four examples follow;

SMI 2011 CAC 40

italy spain ibex

The Swiss regained just 62% but the CAC40 managed only 40%. Italy did little better and Spain has been slumping again for a year. It is patently not clear how, if all these economies “converge” to some common denominator Germany can keep this performance going. If convergence does not occur the end result might just be a lot worse. Looking at Holland’s AEX, one of the “have” countries together with France and Germany, which is still only at a fraction of its highs makes the whole thing even less tenable.

HSIC, Henry Schein, update

Hamilton

This one dropped right on cue, but then came right back. In the big picture nothing has changed. Here is the updated chart;

HSIC jul 2011

The stock is topping. The next big move should be wave C down. See also Feb 11 blog, in which a $75 price target was suggested.