ECA update

eca may 9 2012

The stock delivered the $2+ gain as promised. It will probable  go higher, we simple don’t know with any degree of certainty. The RSI is topping but could stay there for quite some time. In the mean time HNU is up almost 50% from its recent lows. Same story.

ECA Encana update

A week or so ago it looked like natural gas was, perhaps, bottoming. Earlier we recommended ECA, albeit tentatively, as a buy simple because of the upside potential (see earlier blogs). Here are the charts;

eca apr 2012 beca apr 2012 s

Back in December it was still possible that the wedge structure that  was still unfolding could have taken the stock to as low as $15. It did not do that and stopped in the $17+ range. Since then it has been a rollercoaster , most probable a wave 1 up followed by a (very normal) deep wave 2, which means that we are presently in 3. The alternative would be a corrective a-b-c rebound than must , in any case, go to $22 (wedges are almost always fully retraced). Given the clear count this alternative is not at all probable.   Considering that this entire C wave started at $34 and ended roughly at $17 it would not be surprising if the first bull-leg up would travel at least 38% of that which is $6.50 which would take the stock to $24. A very common next target is wave 4 of 3 (a triangle) which would take the stock to $26.

If there is a slight pull-back Monday morning this is an excellent buy for a gain of 10 to 20% with very little risk.