FTSE update

ftse june 12 2014

So again we are wrong, the FTSE did make a new high and may even make a slightly higher high in the next week or two. However, the conclusion stays the same and that is that this index is ripe for a sizeable drop soon. Interestingly the offending new high, so far, is (6895-6876) all of 19 points or less than 1/3 of one percent measured over a period of, rather precisely, a year.

Just to put things in a longer term perspective, here is the twenty year chart. The Footsie is trading below where it was in late 1999. Clearly this index is in big trouble if it cannot decisively break the 7000 level soon. In our opinion it will not. See also previous blogs.

ftse june 12 2014 big

FTSE update (from yesterday,due to technical problems)

ftse jan 31 2014

A quick update on the Footsie.  After trying for eight months this index was unable to breakout to the upside. Just to irritate everybody no end it did manage to come within eight points, but that just doesn’t do it. Now we have broken down conclusively (overnight) below the lower trend line and the speed at which that was done is rather impressive. So we will continue with our view that wave 1 down occurred back in May and June of last year, and that the rise back up is a wave 2. We are now in wave 3 down and looking at the RSI and MACD, probable about to complete a minor first leg. After a bounce for a week or so starting anytime now a wave 3 of 3 will start (or another 1-2 of a lower degree). The speed at which this will drop should accelerate noticeable.

FTSE update

ftse jan 2 2014

At 6750 the FTSE is still below the high of 6804 of May 21. In EW terms it is still possible that we have a series of 1-2s of different degrees. At the same time it does seem a little absurd to attach so much importance to 50 points!  But that is just the way it is.