This is our best guess for oil futures. There are a few competing possibilities but this seems to be the most probable one. This is the September contract so be careful to not make direct comparisons with earlier contracts. The further out the more expensive the contract.

Oil has made it to $59.40 ( now on the June futures contract ), and that is pretty close to the $60 target. Where it goes from here is not perfectly clear but the one thing we do know is that, unlike the Fed. interest rate, it is not going to stay at this level for 6, or more, years. It will move either up or down. Our unsubstantiated bias is still to the downside.

Then, Feb. 13 and now charts.

We have had numerous variations in the interim, none of which wanted to follow the script perfectly, but so far at least the main point was up to about $60 and then to a new low. Contracts have changed and these numbers are not properly adjusted for that. Expect a few dollars higher and then the trend should change to the downside. Keep an eye on RDS, Royal Dutch, short term it should go only a few dollars higher.

The triangle possibility has NOT been negated so far. That would occur at >$56. In the mean time we will just wait and see if d and e will develop , or if this is simple a flat, or if the whole idea of lower oil prices will be negated.