Month: March 2010

F March 2010

Hamilton

Today the TSE met the 61.8% retracement that we have been waiting for for so long. Actually, by coincidence the S&P 500 did pretty well the exact same retracement. A few ticks here or there is always possible tomorrow or Friday but we like to take our que from Ford. As you are aware we had a potential to $14/15 where wave 4 of previous degree resides. Here is the chart;

f march 2010

Again on the basis of the diagonal triangle the stock needed to go at least to $9.60, beyond that the 4th of previous degree  at $14+ was a logical target. We are there either by way of an a-b-c correction (implying Ford is still going under), or by way of an initial 5 –wave move for a new bull market. What now. In the most positive scenario , where this is a new bull, expect a pull-back to the triangle $11 and then to wave 4 at $7. Wave 2 could and usually does erase at least 62% of the initial impulse which would take us to around $6. In short, if still in waiting for the last possible dollar is not recommended. This despite Moody’s late credit upgrade. Ask yourself if you are a contrarian or just another lemming, when the stock was at $1 nobody would touch it, now at $14 + it is second best to sliced bread, chose your own poison.

TS.B March 14, 2010

Hamilton

TS.B March 12 2010

That was good enough for us, sold at $9.90 just under the $10 target, almost 60% in a month in this market triggers the “how could I be so lucky” mindset. The stock not only reached its first target  but did it in a very nice 5-wave move, adhering to the basic Fibonacci ratio of 6 to 10. Moreover the technical indicators, RSI and MACD are clearly at extremes. If you are not yet out sell on the open Monday.

MCD, McDonalds, update March 2010

Hamilton

MCD March 2010

As mentione a few weeks ago, this stock should be shorted. In the meantime, and this has been so typical of the present market , the stock has done essentially nothing, staying suspended at these lofty levels. Anyway at $66 this one should be well done, both the RSI and the MACD are not confirming the latest attempts at marginally higher highs. Stay short.

TSE, March 9, a year later.

Hamilton

TSE March 9 2010

About a year ago we mentioned that the TSE should, applying EW probabilities, retrace either 38% (about 10400), 50% (about 11250) and , most likely  61.8% (about 12100) Higher levels are, of course, possible but not probable.  Today the TSE is up 58% and early January it briefly hit 60+%, the Dow Jones is up 61.18% at the opening this morning. Nasdaq 84%.

However you slice it this correction is most probable done. Momentum is terrible, just consider that since early June the TSE did not move much gravitating to about 11000 all the time. Certainty is not a luxury we have in trading the market but now is clearly, or 2 months ago,  an excellent time to start shorting this index.