F March 2010

Today the TSE met the 61.8% retracement that we have been waiting for for so long. Actually, by coincidence the S&P 500 did pretty well the exact same retracement. A few ticks here or there is always possible tomorrow or Friday but we like to take our que from Ford. As you are aware we had a potential to $14/15 where wave 4 of previous degree resides. Here is the chart;

f march 2010

Again on the basis of the diagonal triangle the stock needed to go at least to $9.60, beyond that the 4th of previous degree  at $14+ was a logical target. We are there either by way of a-b- correction (implying Ford is still going under), or by way of an initial 5 –wave move for a new bull market. What now. In the most positive scenario , where this is a new bull, expect a pull-back to the triangle $11 and then to wave 4 at $7. Wave 2 could and usually does erase at least 62% of the initial impulse which would take us to around $6. In short, if still in waiting for the last possible dollar is not recommended. This despite Moody’s late credit upgrade. Ask yourself if you are a contrarian or just another lemming, when the stock was at $1 nobody would touch it, now at $14 + it is second best to sliced bread, chose your own poison.