Year: 2011

RY again

Hamilton

RY mar 24 2011

This market is wearing me down quite a bit.We go down 1000 points and come right back up 1000 points, each time setting new records. It makes one doubt the accuracy of certain calls and that is why I am repeating my expectation that RY will trade back down, now to at least below the $49 level, unless the stock trades above $63.

The stock has a near perfect EW pattern, 5 down , 3 up and despite the fact that this has taken a lot longer, and that the stock has gone a lot higher, NOTHING changes un till the outlook is negated by trading above $63.

CM, Can. Imperial Bank of Commerce.

Hamilton

CMmar22 2011

A month (Feb 18) ago I presented this same chart. Today we are 47 cents higher than then but have been lower most of the time in between. The stock kept hugging the upper trend-line of this wedge formation. RSI and MACD have diverged for the longest time already but something is going to come out of the woodwork that will bring this stock back to the levels of August 2010, just 5 months after the financial meltdown. It should all happen soon and rapidly once it does.

So we are going up, again? CCO

Hamilton

The Nasdaq is one tick away from overlapping, the Russell 2000 has already overlapped so the whole idea of a first 5 wave down is in trouble, at least in America. Most of the Eurapeans still have a way to go. Also S gave back one dollar, exactly what it had gained over the last week. Cameco is up $2.5 which is close to 10%, this together with the whole Uranium space , like DML, UUU, UEX etc all up similar amounts.Here is CC0;

ccomarch22

I cannot get clear tick charts  but even using this blunt chart it still seems to me that a 5th wave is missing even after today’s big gain.  There is no news of course from Japan, the focus has shifted to Libya, but in the meantime what is leaking out is not particularly encouraging.

DAX update

Hamilton

daxmar222011

Today the DAX is trading at around 6800, up another 135 points, primarily as a result of the sale of parts of Deutsche Telekom to ATT for about $39 bln. (has had a pretty negative effect on S )  The DAX had the largest relative drop (apart from Japan) and therefore it may be the first to resolve if we go up or down from here. It would be perfectly normal for the DAX to rise another 200+ points in what might be a wave 4. However if it trades materially above 7100 the bear case is out of the window and we may be on the way to another new high. For the moment things are in limbo.