Year: 2011

TAP, Molson Coors.

Hamilton

While the Feds are replenishing the punch bowls all though it is 5 a.m and all the citizens are already pretty well spaced out, our  North-American combo of Molson Coors is hitting a little rough patch, or so the charts suggest;

TAP2 2011 TAP2011

There are a number of interesting aspects to this stock. Looking at the big-chart, there is quite obviously a triangle of sorts in the (always) 4th wave position of the 30 year bull run. These triangles tend to be retraced entirely after the peak (5) is in, most often to the lowest point in this case about $21, or perhaps even one notch lower. That this has NOT happened yet, tells us that it is very likely to happen soon.

Furthermore, looking at the B wave in the more detailed chart on the right, the A-B-C structure is equally clear, with C barely getting higher than A but still maintaining that symmetry of C=A. The drop from there is quite sharp , virtually excluding the possibility of the stock regaining its composure. A wee little bounce to $46 is certainly possible from here , but otherwise the stock is a sell.

MFC, The Canary in the mine?

Hamilton

mfc 2011 l mfc2011

On the left the old chart, indicating what should happen if MFC was an indicator for a bull market. We did get the bull market but MFC itself did not participate as much as it should have. By now it should have been trading at or near the old high of $26 so it is about $8 short of that. In the mean time SLF and POW are much closer to those levels. Seems to me that ……

canary

The stock may be tracing out a small triangle that would , perhaps , give it a bounce to $20+ but I would abandon the stock now or , at the very least use a very tight stop. The real question now is should this approach be applied to the entire market as a whole. Buy some HXD just to play it safe.

RDS.a , Royal Dutch Shell , update.

Hamilton

rds2011 rds20112

Just a quick update on Royal Dutch. Nothing has changed except that the A-B-C retracement probable completed a few weeks or so ago. The sheer geometric precision is a little marvel in itself but the possible implications are even more intriguing as they run completely contrary to the present wisdom in the street that seems to have it that oil will go up.

For whatever reasons, this stock seems destined for $34 or lower!

F, GM, TM (Toyota)

Hamilton

 

tm32011

First Toyota. The big chart should bring tears to the eyes of the true EW(avers), in that it follows all the pragmatic little rules and guidelines perfectly, so far. My drawing is simplified just to get the message across better, but in reality wave 3 tops one block lower as wave 4 is most likely an irregular zig-zag. The top line should go through the top of wave 1. The result is that wave 5 is equal to 1 and 3 combined, there is alternation between 2 and 4 and the 3d of 3 is extended. All picture perfect.

Typically correction take a stock to the level of the 4th wave of previous degree, roughly $40. Furthermore, again this is typical, the stock loses at least 62% of its value, about $50. It has done neither of these,yet. It will , if it keeps behaving.

f32011

Ford has pretty well also done what it should having completed a first wave up, right into the level of the 4th wave and at about the 50% retracement level. From there it has dropped in, what appears to be, a very nice 5 wave down for A. If you are courageous the next B wave up should be good for $3/4 to the upside, but after that the stock should go down in the c wave  to at least $10 (but possible $7).

GM peaked after its public offering at the beginning of the year. Since then it has dropped below the issue price. There is little chart to go by but what little there is does not look promising.