Year: 2011

TSX and DOW

Hamilton

Clearly the Dow did not stay in the triangle, it is now more likely an a-b-c, more or less the original thought. We will see. In any case 4 days in a row, up and down more than 400 points has never happened before.

Concerning the TSX, I am wondering if another original idea might not apply, given the violent move. Do not think so but one cannot help but wonder.

tsx aug 11 2011 tsx aug 11 2 2011

On the left is the original idea . It was discarded because it took to long. On the right is the latest up-leg. Just like the Dow , 900 points up in 3 days is insane. It looks like a wedge but  short-term I am not going to guess.

OTC, Open Text.

Hamilton

June 2nd this was a sure sell at $65 . It had taken years to get out of a range and broke out at about $52, than it appeared to have completed either a simple 5 wave rise, or a wedge. This chart shows the wedge;

otc aug 2011

Earnings must have come out or something of that nature..in any case the stock is now down about 18%, half of it today. The immediate target , of course, is $35 0r $27.5, the base of the wedge. The only interesting thing about this stock is that there was a gap on the way up, and one on the way down. This leaves an island behind and chances are very slim, at least in the foreseeable future that you will see those levels again. The break of the trend-line at around $60 provided a good warning.

DOW , update again

Hamilton

DOW aug 11 2011

MSN has a cleaner chart that is almost a tick chart. On that info the 600 point surge we had after the Fed rate-freeze announcement could be interpreted as a 3-leg affaire, rather than 5. If it was 3-legs the triangle is still a possibility and , in fact, more fitting. Today we would be in c which should be about 60% of the 500 plus drop yesterday so 300 to 350, then down again and up again. In the end e would end at about 11000, putting the target at 10400. If it happens it could start late Friday or the next Monday. Do not trade on this, it is just an educated guess to give a roadmap.

PS, The flat is not out of the running!