Year: 2011

DIS, Disney

Hamilton

dis

Disney is not much different from a whole host of stocks. It starts down in an A-B-C in which the C is the 2008/9 market crash. The next move up is a pretty standard irregular B wave, itself comprised of an A-B-C The entire structure looks to be an expanded flat (but could become a huge triangle!). The large C wave has begun and should develop into a 5-wave down move. It may do so at approximately the same tangent of the A wave, first part slow and then faster. If that were to happen a pretty steep rally should be around the corner. The stock has now lost 37%, by my rough calculations, from the irregular top of B 3 or 5 months ago. That is close to the Fibo 38% and it also coincides with the low of the triangle (at least the short version).In terms of the rally post March the stock is down roughly 50%

    There is an outside chance that all of this will turn out to become a fourth wave of some high degree. A flat would fit this nicely but so would a triangle (in blue). On the outside chance that it does become a triangle, typically the legs (5 of them) relate to each other by 61.8% (this is akin to the dampening effect by friction on a swinging pendulum ). That targets approximately $25 for the C leg. I do not like projecting out that far in the future, too many things can change, but it does give a roadmap for the next best stopping point $25.(that is also where 62% of the rally is erased. The early clue will be how wave C develops , if it turns out as a 3 legged affair the triangle will be will come to the front, for the moment $14 is the target.

CSCO, Cisco

Hamilton

csco feb9 CSCO

Above some old charts on CISCO, one is now two or more years old, and yes we did go down and no we did not go up, but today it still is not clear if the old $8 low was it;

csco aug 2011 Seems like a long time, but EW is not particularly good at timing. What is clear is that we made a corrective A-B-C from the lows of $8 .Subsequent to that we seem to be in another A-B-C down, that is incomplete! None of this, unfortunately, is bullish, but it could become that after a revisit of $8; even then it is not bullish long-term.

MFC , Manulife update

Hamilton

mfc aug 10

As explained before, Manulife is one of the best barometers for the market as a whole. They bought their own sales talk and believed the rather unscientific statistical nonsense that there had never been a 10 year period during which the market went down. This was one of those six sigma events that could only happen once every 10,000,000 years. As luck would have it took only two or three years for the proverbial s…. to hit the fan.

Lately the Fed’s policy of keeping rates low for another two years is causing a “perfect storm” for the insurance companies. For MFC this may just be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. The break shown above, makes a triangle formation not entirely impossible but very unlikely. Probable the stock will simple proceed down without a bounce. The old low around $9 looks like it can now be broken. A possible target would be $5, but something will happen before we get there, but that something probable will not help existing shareholders..