DJIA , Gold GLD, and Oil WTI

djia may 2012

This is a 5-year chart. No absolute amounts , just percentages. Black is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, down perhaps 10% over 5 years. Blue is gold by way of the GLD, up 130% over the same period. Then there is the yellow or brown line representing oil, down 45% from 5 years ago. None of this is the least bit interesting except that things are not supposed to happen this way. All three are directionally correlated quite well, unheard of in economics 101. When correlations move to 1, there is a problem ahead.

FSLR and GAM, Gamesa Corp Technological SA

We have been a little bearish on FSLR, First Solar, for the simple reason that we love this stuff but believe that any government involvement kills the whole thing. In the US homeownership was the politically correct story of the day, that is how Fannie May became the largest and most incompetent dealer in derivatives, never mind that most people there knew absolutely nothing about them nor did they need to know if they had stuck to their knitting. America claims to be the land of the free, and with that, raw capitalism. But any and every time something goes awry it reverts back to  a centrally , or dirigistic  type of economy. The Fed is the prime example of constant meddling but it also happens in that new wonder of the world, non conventional energy. From China to the US, from Romania to Hungary, from Denmark to Iceland etc.etc. government subsidies have been available at embarrassingly high levels, often well over 10x what the free market would have dictated. Here is what happens when they come to their senses and abruptly pull the plug;

fslr may 2012gam 2012

Spain has a problem with empty homes, it also has a problem with renewable energy policies, all this courtesy the government. First they discovery new sliced bread, subsidizes you to the tune of 10x + above the going market rates, completely ignoring how this might fit in the existing infrastructure and then reverse policy. One day the same will happen with interest rates!(see previous blogs on FSLR). Canada is doing exactly the same thing. Not knowing the basic difference between base-load and whatever else happens to be available, our politicians are embarrassed to have to explain why it is that we pay Americans to use our power, an economic concept that does not come across very readily. Never mind the non- tendered deal with Samsung.

MFC update

MFC may28 2012

Manulife has been an excellent barometer for the Canadian market. It is now about a single dollar away from an earlier low as well as the lows during the depths of the Great Recession. The lows back in 2000 were about $8. The stock can trade between $10 and $8 if there is a throw-over as it completes what might be a “diagonal”. Something will have to happen otherwise this stock is in very big trouble!

WPT, Westport update

WPT may 28 2012

Westport did shoot up but did not quite make it to the $32 target (even if it did gain $8 off the lows). The question now is was this it or only 1/2 of the bounce. The drop back to $26 is as expected but from here on there is still a reasonable possibility that we have only done 1/2 of the bounce. The C part could start any moment and then would bring the stock right into the expected range.