Month: July 2012

XOM and RDS.a the integrated oils, update.

Hamilton

From the blogs, Nov 19, 2010, and July 13 ,2010;

Buy it here,…………………………………………………………………..Sell when it gets to about $75

xom jul 2010XOM nov 2010

The buy at around $57 was based on the near perfect wedge that had developed. The sell at around $75 was based on the simple fact that these wedges nearly always completely retrace, so that was a minimum expectation. Here is where we are today;

XOM jul 2012

So the stock went a bit above the $75, but more importantly it took a lot longer courtesy the meddling central banks. For almost two years now the stock peaks between $85 and $87 without making any real headway. Here it is in detail;

XOM jul 2012 s

This thing is a wedge, pennant, diagonal whatever. When, not if, it breaks down we will be back at the bottom and then some. Wave 4 of previous degree is not at $53 but at $30, easily attainable if C becomes 1.62x A. The stock was downgraded yesterday by one of the big European houses (UBS?) but the target was raised to $110, go figure.

Royal Dutch did something similar. Here is the old (Nov. 2010) and today’s chart;

rds.a nov 2010rds.a jul 2012

This time the target was dead on but, so far at least, the anticipated drop has not yet happened, but neither has the opposite. If this is a 1-2, 1-2 situation things could get nasty real fast. The target, as with XOM is also around $30.

NEM, Newmont Mining update

Hamilton

See our previous blog of April 27. Then we assumed the whole process was starting with a 1-2, 1-2. In this count we abstract from that. For the moment there is little difference in the outcome, first stop was expected at around $39. Here are the charts again;

nem jul 2012 bnem jul 2012 s

At today’s low the stock is down 40% from the recent peak. There are two big picture counts with either a 5th wave from the lows in 2001/3, or a large B-wave that coincides with gold’s 10/11 year rise over the same time, from about 300 to 1900 an ounce, double the increase of this stock! Either way we should revisit the $15 level before all is said and done.

NKO , NIKO Resources Ltd. update

Hamilton

nko jul 27 2012nko jul 2012 s

Unfortunately we do not have tick charts any longer than 10 days, so we are looking at an incomplete picture. Today Draghi, Bernanky and Pan Gongshen came out with a joint communiqué in which they expressed their unreserved conviction that Niko should close the gap at $21.21 and they promised to do whatever was needed to get it there. Just kidding.

This looks like the start of a third wave (starting from around $13), you are already up 30% or so, why not enjoy the ride. It may go a lot higher!

AEM, Agnico Eagle update

Hamilton

See Febr. 7 and 17 blog. Here is big picture, very much like ABC but a lot more volatile;

aem jul 26 2012

Notice that over the past ten years or more this stock followed the pattern of ABX. We do not see the triangle as clearly but one could imagine one. In any case this stock is probable in wave 4 (which we anticipated back in Febr. of this year). By the way if you are still long the stock from $35 you may get a second chance to sell at about $45. On a proportional basis Agnico is well ahead of ABX having already lost 2/3 of its value which would be around $18 for ABX.