See Oct. and Nov. previous blogs (under TCK.B or TCK).
After moving up nicely into the target of about $44 it has come down already $10 and looks to continue this exercise. It should make a new low below $33 and perhaps much lower lows.
Year: 2012
TSX update
The anticipated triangle actually happened, even if it is not particularly clean. We should see a new low over the next few days and that might complete wave 1 down of 3 of C. The rebound should be good for about 300 points depending on how low it actually goes. Why is anyone’s guess, perhaps more rumblings about QE3.
NVLS update
See also the Jan. 2012 entry.
At about $50 the C and A legs of the rebound are just about equal. Also the “gap” is pretty well in the middle. We would sell now on any bounce.
COS, Canadian Oil Sands
The above is the blog from Oct. last year; here is what actually happened;
So it went to 24.5, not 24, close enough. Now what? Wave 5! This could take the stock down to $16.85 as previously predicted , or even lower. WTI trades at a discount to Brent of roughly $30 or so, but so does Canadian oil relative to WTI, by approximately the same amount which would put the price at around $75. Break even is at around $ 65/$ 85 depending who you believe. Costs are rising rather dramatically so the earlier mentioned possibility of having “stranded costs” is not pure phantasy but is becoming increasingly real. With Alberta politics shifting to the right it might get harder to find a compromise on things like pipelines etc.