WFT, West Fraser Timber

wft b

These guys make dimension lumber and consequently one would expect that they are very sensitive to the housing industry, particularly in the US where much of this stuff goes. There are a few “problems” with the count as shown, but the broad brush picture seems to be correct. Notice that the top is reached in early 05 (perhaps even in late 04 ) so the stock ran ahead of the housing market itself which supposedly peaked in 2006. The stock then drops over 5 years to lose 64% of it’s total value. It bottoms roughly (a little late) with the rest of the market and then, in less than 2 years, climbs straight up to a new all time high of $62.23,  just a fraction away from the ideal Fibo  # 61.8 . Given the speed, and the fact that this is happening well before there is any recovery in the home-building world, this must be a B-wave which implies that it is “corrective” and therefore, by definition, a new low should be anticipated (or a far more complex pattern). The details are shown below;

wft swft vs

Notice that this B-wave is almost perfect as the two upward components are almost precisely vector equal, topping in April with the markets in general , but not the home-building industry. From there there are seemingly two more a-b-c’s , the first down and the last one back up. We suspect that the one down is in reality a 5-wave structure with a relatively small first wave. The last a-b-c brings tears to your eyes by an unbelievable display of symmetry. Again the message is that this move is corrective and therefore the next move should be down, down to about $20 or lower. We shall see.

FVI, Fortuna Silver Mines

fvi feb 2012

Fortuna just would not go down as expected. It has now spent 10 months going nowhere. The pattern, however , has become clearer. There is either a triangle up here , or a series of 4-5’s, either way the stock should soon drop to about $3.50 (wave 4 of 3 and 62%). This does not bode well for the precious metals as a whole.

CPG, Crescent Point Energy

cpg b feb 29 2012CPG feb 29 2012

Whereas some stocks have done very little over the past 10+ years, that is certainly not the case with Crescent Point which has gone from under $2 to above $46. We would sell it now. Veritas has a $50 target on it but we doubt that it will go much above $48 given the above “wedge”. The extra dollar or two is not worth waiting for considering the downside risk this sort of pattern usually entails.

STJ St. Jude Medical, update

stj feb 2012

Comments from July and October last year, see previous blogs.

The stock did exactly that. The low was at $33.54. My (educated) guess is that the first wave is complete and that we are doing 2 right now. This wave 2 could, repeat could, continue to say $44, the apex of a triangle. I am sure some of you will think that this count cannot be correct as wave 3 looks to be the shortest. However if you look carefully it will become clear that it is indeed the longest. Stay out! By the way, the p/e is still well above 30 according to Bigcharts.

The target of “say” $44, made 4 months earlier was , of course, wrong by $0.26. That really makes you wonder if EW works. Next is wave 3 down to below $25.