These guys make dimension lumber and consequently one would expect that they are very sensitive to the housing industry, particularly in the US where much of this stuff goes. There are a few “problems” with the count as shown, but the broad brush picture seems to be correct. Notice that the top is reached in early 05 (perhaps even in late 04 ) so the stock ran ahead of the housing market itself which supposedly peaked in 2006. The stock then drops over 5 years to lose 64% of it’s total value. It bottoms roughly (a little late) with the rest of the market and then, in less than 2 years, climbs straight up to a new all time high of $62.23, just a fraction away from the ideal Fibo # 61.8 . Given the speed, and the fact that this is happening well before there is any recovery in the home-building world, this must be a B-wave which implies that it is “corrective” and therefore, by definition, a new low should be anticipated (or a far more complex pattern). The details are shown below;
Notice that this B-wave is almost perfect as the two upward components are almost precisely vector equal, topping in April with the markets in general , but not the home-building industry. From there there are seemingly two more a-b-c’s , the first down and the last one back up. We suspect that the one down is in reality a 5-wave structure with a relatively small first wave. The last a-b-c brings tears to your eyes by an unbelievable display of symmetry. Again the message is that this move is corrective and therefore the next move should be down, down to about $20 or lower. We shall see.