Year: 2012

GDOW

Hamilton

gdow big cgdow s circle

This is the Global DOW. It is the same chart in both pictures, but with a different emphasis. In the larger picture we have the A wave down followed by the B up. We are now in the C which should subdivide into 5, separate waves, wave 1 and 2 are (almost?) complete. The structures within the circles are essentially identical. Soon wave 3 down should start. The retracement on the rebound was about 60-70%, if we get the same proportion now this one should be as ripe as a rotting apple. Below is what the whole thing might look like once complete.

gdow bb

Fortunately there are alternatives. One would be that the B-wave is not yet complete. Another leg up to perhaps 2600 could kill a whole year but in the end the big dive would still happen. There are a number of other variations but overall the outlook is pretty dismal.

FSLR, First Solar update

Hamilton

fslr oct 25 2011fslr feb 2012

On the left the Oct 25, 2011  blog, and on the right the Feb. 25, 2012 picture. The e-wave turned out to be a little on the short side, which happens when the stock is in a hurry to get going, and then the C-wave , which was expected to go to $50 or so to keep proportionality with the A-wave, actually went beyond that and got all the way to $30. Needless to say, if you were short you would have bought back for 60+% gain, if you are still short buy it back now. The stock could easily go lower but the most recent rebound, from $30 to $50 is a clear (maybe, maybe not) 5-wave structure, followed by an a-b-c retracement to $35 (about 3/4!). The c leg could start any moment and take the stock up about $20 from here. But the count is not perfectly clear so one should leave it alone or work with a tight stop at $29 or even higher.

fslr s feb 25 2012

Either one of these trajectories is possible, which essentially means that what you lack in certainty must be compensated for by discipline, hence the stop-loss.