Year: 2012

AMGN update

Hamilton

amgn oct 2012

amgn oct 2012 s

We did quite nicely with this stock (see previous blogs). We got out too early with a 50% gain and then warned that it had a little higher to go. Well here it is about $5 higher at $90 AND it has a nice 5 wave sequence up in which wave 5 appears to be the extended one having equalled  waves 1 and 3 combined (it is a semi-log chart!). It looks like it is well done, however , being so close to an even $100 makes this stock very susceptible to the Mnt. Everest effect as the momentum players give it an extra nudge. A sell between here and $100 but with a strong preference for now.

AFL, Aflac update

Hamilton

afl oct 2012 bafl oct 2012 s

We look at stocks randomly, or because they are in the news or something else attracts our attention. It is therefore pure coincidence if we happen to look at it at the time it makes an exact extreme. Furthermore, if we comment that “this stock is going down a lot further” do not wait for this service to tell you when we are there. There are simple too many stocks to allow for ongoing surveillance.

We had a sell on this one at about $53 (see previous blogs). It went to about $31 and we hope that you bought back if you were short after a profit of say 30% or so. A year has gone by and the stock has again done an a-b-c up and about to reach the line connecting the tops. If you look closely you will also notice that the pattern in 2008 to2010 is repeated on a smaller scale in 2011 and 2012. At about $53 it will reach that line again (if it does) and then it should resume the downward trek.

If , for some reason, you SEE a huge triangle here – which would be bullish ultimately – you would still get out as wave e is still required and should take the stock down about $10+

W5000, Wilshire 5000 Total Market Full Cap index.

Hamilton

w5000 2012 bw5000 2012 s

One of the most important attributes of EW patterns with respect to their credibility is elegance, harmony or symmetry. The more you have of that the more likely you will be in being correct. This is the Wilshire 5000 index, it is cap-weighted like the Dow and contains a little over 4000 different stocks (not 5000 as you might expect). It is the broadest index in the US and therefore probable represents the best cross section of US equities. We have the big dive down of the great recession and then a B-wave up that almost double tops. That wave is subdivided in two, vector equal sections A and C. The three higher highs of the wedge are perfectly on one single line. So are the three lows today but tomorrow (or next week some time) we expect the line to be broken to the downside.

DOW, update

Hamilton

DOW oct 27 2012 bDOW oct 27 2012 s

Just a quick update on the wedge concept as it is progressing in the DOW. It looks like the structure is complete but these diagonals have an annoying habit to go further than one expects. Each led comes in threes and consequently it would be possible that we have only completed waves 1, 2 and 3 and are presently in wave 4 with 5 still to go. However, the proportions of the legs to each other and the whole looks to be near perfect. A break now of the lower boundary would increase the confidence that it is game over for this index.  The question then is what can possible cause, trigger or provide the tipping point for such a change to occur. We have no idea and do not really care. Nevertheless it is hard not to notice that in 9 days from now, or perhaps a little earlier, it might become clear who the next president of the US might become. Obama would be good as he would keep Bernanke in office so you can count on QEs forever, Romney would be good because he favours super free capitalism that should increase profits, that at least is the conception. Perhaps it will soon be clear that concept and reality are miles apart, regardless who wins.