Year: 2012

MS, Morgan Stanley update

Hamilton

ms oct 10 2012

We have liked MS for quite some time, particularly earlier this year when the stock hit the line connecting the lows over the past 5 years. We are now up about $6 from those levels (+- 50%) . If this is an A-B-C from 2007 on, see previous blogs as that is not necessarily the case, then we should still get a new low which, in turn, would imply that we are in a 4th wave, probable a triangle as these structures normally break the trend lines. A d and e seem to still be required so it may take a little time but the stock probable will not go much higher. We would sell here.

CUA, Cuoro

Hamilton

cua oct 2012

Cuoro has been the basket case we expected it to be. Then at about 60 cents the possibility presented it self that a large A-B-C from $2.60 to $0.60 ( nice Fibo ratios!)completed itself. Not much has happened to either support or reject that view. If correct, that is if the A-B-C is complete , this stock will easily double regardless of where it might ultimately end. This might be a buy at 0.53 or lower with a stop at around 0.45  When putting in the stop make the range very tight as otherwise you could get molested along the way.

JAG update

Hamilton

JAG oct 10 2012

We show JAG once again, not because we are interested in this company per se at this time, but because it is instructive as to what one might expect from the markets in general. The 5 year cycle is complete , short perhaps of a minor wave 5 of 5 of C, and displays a textbook flat A-B-C. It loses 95% + of its value and drops right back to the 4th wave of previous degree and C is slightly larger than A.  On some US indices we are presently at the high point of the B, on most others we are approximately where the red arrow is (or lower), that is at wave 2 of 3 of C or a little below that. The strongest drop is right ahead of us. We will see.

RGL, Royal Gold

Hamilton

RGL oct 2012

This royalty company has had an unbelievable performance. It is now trading with a P/E of 55 and a return of under 1%. It has done the Mnt. Everest thing we have talked about so often, actually it has a single dollar more to go to get there. We do not see a clear count starting from the 2001 low. We would have loved to have owned this stock. Today, short of perhaps one more high, we would prefer to not own it. There are a number of possible triangles in this chart which could point to a 4-5.4-5 kind of situation. Otherwise the whole chart consists of 9 waves , 5 up and 4 down which constitutes a 5 wave sequence. Much of the action occurs in a relatively narrow channel, the only major break-out having just occurred. Use a stop below the upper trend line or sell outright.