Year: 2012

Silver, the stuff

Hamilton

silver oct 10 2012

See our blog of a year ago (Sept. 2011). We expected a nice rebound as soon as the C leg was complete. It took 3 months and then the stuff shot up by about 40%, came right back down and then repeated the exercise. What we have now is an A-B-C down followed by an incomplete a-b-c back up.  Some see a triangle here but it would take a lot of imagination even if it met all requirements, which it does not!. Others approach it from the fundamental side. Just heard a young analyst explain that the stuff can only go up given the monetary easing all around the world. Ignorance is indeed bliss. Perhaps he will be right but it did escape him that over the past 3 or 4 years there is no causal correlation at all.

In any event if this is a consolidation period the stuff could shoot up quite nicely. We think it is more likely an A-B-C X A-B-C, also known as a double zig-zag. The little c up may have a little higher to go but than it is downhill again.

ZJG update

Hamilton

ZJG oct 10 2012

The BMO junior gold ETF is a barometer of sorts to keep an eye on. These are small gold exploration and mining companies with high beta’s relative to the big boys. If they stumble there is trouble ahead. In our June 6th blog we drew a line in the sand, go above $17 and things look good, stay below it and things remain problematic. Things may still change  for the better , but for now stand aside.

INTC (See also DJI, S&P and Nasdaq, Oct. 6)

Hamilton

The usual then and now;

INTC jan 2012intc oct 10 2012

Then was in January of this year and now is yesterday. As you can see the main feature in the old chart is the wedge shaped “diagonal triangle” in EW lingo. The very same structure that we recently pointed out exists in the Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq. We were not perfect being a dollar or two too early but certainly a lot better than the technical editorial in the Globe & Mail that was looking for $37 (provided $24.50 did not break). The dive so far appears to be a first wave followed by a wave two, putting us presently in wave 3. Judging by the RSI and MACD things may be – temporarily – overdone. Ultimately these structures are resolved by a drop back to the base, roughly $17. No guarantee that it will stop there, as in the big picture the stock should retrace the entire B-wave, that is make a new low below $11!