Year: 2012

NKO update

Hamilton

NKO sept 2012

If you followed the August 2 blog you would have either been stopped out with a $4 gain or made about $6, both on $13. Not bad. Also you are not participating in today’s dive! At present levels the stock must. once again , soon become a buying opportunity. No idea what that level is, perhaps somewhere around $5. Of course ,using English math., coming from 110 and soon trading at 10, constitutes a drop of 100 % and you cannot do more than that.

For educational purposes I have put a little red arrow on the spot where, according to the real bearish EWavers we are today in the overall market. Perhaps, perhaps not.

AMGN update

Hamilton

cAMGN sept 2012 bcamgn b sept 2012

Back in December of 2010 we expected this stock to rise by about $40 (see previous blogs). It almost did exactly that but is now threatening to double top. We would always sell at that level as a matter of course and certainly after such an incredible move on nothing in particular. Various counts could be applied to this stock but almost all would suggest that it is a sell rather than a buy. Time to not own this stock and maybe even short it if it should move up just a little bit further. We previously suggested getting out at about $ 75, good for a 50% gain.

The best count, 95% sure, for this up move is that it is a B-wave.

COH, Coach update

Hamilton

The usual then (31 july 2012) and now charts;

coh jul 31 2012 scoh sept 2012

Granted that it did not quite make it to the line but it did rebound fast and furiously from around that level. The rebound is exactly as expected, a zig-zag. The next move should be as indicated then, that is down a lot further.

S&P again, update.

Hamilton

s&p 1 sept 2012s&p 2 sept 2012

S&P 3 sept 2012

Different charts show different pictures depending on how the values are calibrated on either the x or y axis, or in relation to each other. Also some charts show every move on the day, others only closing values and so on. So here is the S&P (SPX). 3 times.  The high point is at about 1450 once the trend line is reached. Obviously a throw-over is always a possibility but, for the sake of argument let us assume perfection. The S&P is presently at about 1435 and the Dow has already marched on to a new post crash high. So is the DAX. Most other indices are still well below previous levels and certainly not within 7% of their all time highs. Over the next few days we will have a QE3 announcement, the German Constitutional Court pronouncing on the legality of the ECB plan, Dutch elections, more fuss over Greece and perhaps a few additional infusions of stimulus by China and India. All this should be sufficient to add the needed 15 points but the big question is if it will stay there.