St. Jude is following the EW script quite conscientiously (see previous blogs). Ultimately we are looking for a low of $24 or less. For the moment two scenarios present themselves as plausible. The green one is initially fairly bullish which is why I would prefer the purple one by a large margin.
A nice 5 wave sequence can be counted into the 2008 high of $110. Some might, of course , argue that the B-wave shown is actually the 5th wave and that the top is at $143. That is impossible as overlap would have occurred! Furthermore the B-wave is nearly perfect, travelling a total of $133 and subdividing in two, almost equal parts off by only a few dollars. A B it is and here we are well into C. In fact C is already equal to A and could be considered complete were it not that it normally stops below the start of A, normally reaches at least the 4th wave of previous degree level and often reaches the lowest boundary line at about $15. It has done none of this.
The C wave can be counted either as a 1-2-3-4 triangle-5 and should then soon be complete, or as an a-triangle b-c zig-zag which has quite a bit to go. $30 is almost assured under either scenario. We will keep an eye on it and also (see elsewhere and below) BTU which has a very similar pattern even if some details are different;
See our Oct. blog that was dead on.
Chevron is among the biggest integrated oil companies. Here is the chart , both arithmetic and semi-log. The small chart is oil itself, just the last 5 years; obviously there is no correlation!
The count may need some adjusted but in the big picture it is probable more or less spot on. A drop to about $60 would be normal. Big trouble would start at about $80 where the stock would drop out of its 40 year channel. We expect that it will;
This is the 5th wave up, it starts a little earlier but I cannot get this chart for free for more than 3 years. One thing that is very definitive is the wedge at the top. It almost guarantees a drop at least to the first target of $85 or so. Time will tell.
Continue to look for lower prices, despite the $10 run-up. See previous blogs.