The usual then-and-now format, then being 31 Dec. , two months ago;
From about $11.75 to $ 18.75 is a cool $6 up in 2 months which is equal to $36 per annum or 306%, it may go higher if the analysis then was correct.
On the side , we noticed that JCP, J.C. Penney was downgraded by Citi and a number of other analysts. This is when the stock is rapidly approaching our target of $13.75 or so. Be ready!
Then and now charts. The wave 4 prediction that it would not be a simple triangle but an a-triangle b- c pattern proved to be correct. We are now also approaching the target established more than a year ago. We would not buy it there. From $2.60 to 16 cents is very impressive. Listening to Ned Goodman the other day at the Prospectors etc (PDAC) show downtown, he reminded that in his opinion about 1/2 of these companies (there are 700 plus) will cease to exist soon. He is a geologist and very well respected on Bay street.
JCP looks like it should be bought soon at about $13.75. Almost 27% is held in short positions and this should provide a similar move to HPQ recently, that doubled in a few months and is the best performing stock in the Do this year. As always, use a stop at around $12.
Our attention was drawn to this stock by an article by M. Cembalest who commented on the P/E ratio of some stocks that might be announcing the fact that once again we are in a bubble, again created by the Fed. Here we look only t the EW implications.
The spike top in late 2008 looks like a misprint so we may be close to double topping. In any event the move from the 2009 lows to where we are today is without a doubt a B-wave. The only uncertainty is whether or not the (small) A-B-C up has a flat or a triangle in the B-wave position. The difference is not critical to the conclusion. Assuming it is a flat then the next pattern is a clear wedge. It has the required 5 waves (3 up, 2 down) has overlap and the three up legs relate to each other as 9.13 to 9.75 to 9.01 As wave one is already shorter than wave 3 , no definitive predictions can be made (wave 3 may not be the shortest!) but, notwithstanding that, and certainly given the throw-over that has already occurred, it is unlikely that this stock goes much higher. The RSI tells the same story.
Fundamentally it is not clear why this stock, despite the gradual recovery of the building sector, should trade at the same levels it did during the peak boom years. A sell in our opinion with an initial target around $32.