Month: March 2014

JPM, update

Hamilton

The usual then, June 25th 2013, and now charts;

jpm june 24 2013jpm mar 26 2014

3/4 of a year have passed and nothing has changed except that the stock is up about 20% as predicted. The bank has paid billions in fines and compensation and has lost eleven of fifteen top management people. Recently it managed to regain all value that it had shed since 1999 by double topping and even adding some. Nevertheless the count is not any clearer; we are either in the c of a larger B-wave, or we are doing a 5th wave after a fairly extended triangle. Triangle measurements would suggest a top at, alternatively $65 or $70 Looking at the short term charts;

jpm mar 26 2014 sjpm mar 26 2014 m

the picture does not become much clearer. The RSI and PMO have a little more room left to go, perhaps as in a throw-over in a diagonal or wedge. What is clear is that the upside is limited. We would exit here or apply a tight running stop. Alternatively we would short the stock if it moves up another dollar.

ACQ, AutoCanada Inc

Hamilton

ACQ mar 24, 2014

This company runs a collection of auto dealerships, representing all the major brands including, ironically, GM. For two years or so the stock did nothing and then it took off to become a ten-bagger in just a little over two years. They are based in Alberta and , no doubt one day this stock will trade at $500 or more, but we would be inclined to take our chips off the table. The stock trades at  a 33x p/e, the RSI and MACD are at peak levels and lately the climb was as close to vertical as it gets. A sell.

WLT update

Hamilton

wlt may 20 2014

As anticipated this stock has now done it’s minor 5th wave. The only thing not clear is the degree. This may be it , then again it may not. Nevertheless this is definitely a buy at these levels as, either way, the stock should have a tradable rebound of about $3 before anything else. 42% of the float of this stock is presently held in short positions. A speculative buy for sure!

EWI , iShares Italy

Hamilton

ewi mar 18 2014

A new high today in Italy’s stock market. The chart is not  particularly bullish. A large A-B-C could still take this ETF to about $22, but a more bearish take would call for a 5th wave down in a diagonal as shown. We would say arrivederci, un till some later date, and step aside for now.