MGA, Mega Uranium Ltd.

mga mar 11 2014

First the big picture. This stock peaked at about $8 back in 2007 after completing a clean 5-wave up sequence. After that it appears to have traced out a six/seven year A-B-C correction which was completed at about $0.55. During this time we had the Russians dismantling  a good part of their arsenal and the Japanese abandoning nuclear power all together. The Germans did something similar. The unanswered question was , of course, where are you then going to get the power. It seems to be more and more probable that the answer is nuclear power. So we have, or will have gone full circle and with the Chinese contemplating a few hundred reactors the whole demand/supply picture has changed dramatically. So much so that, if the $8 peak ever did make sense, it should do so again now.

In EW. terms a return to wave 4 of previous degree is sort of a minimum for a rebound, that is close to $2. Beyond that there are a multitude of possibilities over time. Below are short term charts to show the initial expectation.

mga mar 11 m 2014mga 11 mar 2014 s

The stock looks a little overbought so it may take a little while for the next leg up. We expect a triangle here so the lowest point was already reached.

BLD, Ballard Power Systems Inc.

bld mar 10 2014

This was once one of the gems of the tech. bubble in 2000. Their fuel cell technology is based on burning hydrogen, which we all know results in water. Very clean, efficient and so on if you do not first ask where the hydrogen comes from! The other problem is the weight. These cells do not fit in a standard Fiat 500. Anyway, for some reason (Tesla’s success maybe?), interest in this company has shot up recently. We have absolutely no idea where this is going, or why. But , using EW we suspect it will go to about $9.50 with a lot of little ups and downs at about this level. A similar conclusion can be arrived at if you follow the “gap in the middle” concept. The stock is already going vertically up so a stop-loss is , in any event, advisable.

To put this in historic perspective, this stock has the ability to go much higher as well as much lower. It all depends on what timeframe you chose. Below is the 20 year chart with a high somewhere in the order of $170 or so.

bld mar 10 2014 b

WLT update

wlt mar 10 2014

As suggested nine days ago, this one was probable missing a 5th wave. We now have most of it; all that is needed now is a very minor 5th of 5 to complete the C. See previous blog Sleeping half-moon  This is the US $ version, there is also a Canadian one. This is a buy at just under US $9. There is however a small risk that that would only complete 3 of 5. The difference is slightly larger swings and a slightly lower low.

FSLR update and CSIQ

The usual then and now charts;

fslr apr 2012fslr b mar 6, 2014

We were a little early, but still it is nice to triple your money. Of course we would have done better going Canadian with CSIQ. We lacked the IQ but we do have an installation on our roof using the Canadian solar panels and it provides a 12 % , bond equivalent return. Here is the chart;

csiq b 6 mar 2014csiq s mar 6 2014

Canada’s on-off approach to solar, in particular the domestic content part, may have caused undue fluctuations in the acceptance of this “green” alternative. Another good example where government intervention destabilizes the markets.