EEFT, Euronet

eeft oct 30 2015

This company has been around since the late eighties and has it’s origins in Hungary of all places all though it is incorporated in the US. A good part of it’s business involves money transfers and FX transaction. It got a solid boost when it was able to muscle out Western Union (WU) and Moneygram (MCI) from their partnership position with Wallmart in 2014. If this sort of stuff tickles you pink then buying these shares in the past year or two would have netted you 1 to 2x your money back plus the original investment, compared to perhaps losing it all.

   We do not like the stock anymore. 1. we are in the pure vertical stage, 2. it is possible to count a clear 5 wave move up from the lows of 2009, 3. the RSI is once again approaching the 80% level, 4. even though we are not quite there yet this stock is doing a heroic Mnt. Everest climb which would ideally take the stock to 100 but not necessarily, 5. the p/e is trading at a lofty 46x, about 3x the norm, 6. the business is quickly becoming commoditized. Every Tom, Dick and Harry is getting into the business and there were already too many players.

Definitely a sell here and certainly anywhere between here and $100. A reasonable first target is either $45 or $36 or so.

Note: We are confident that 5 waves up are complete or nearly so. Even so we are open to the idea that wave 4 might have occurred a little later in the sequence than shown, that is starting at $55. This would become more compelling in the event that the stock does, in fact, manage to climb to $100.

GPRO update

The usual then, April 29, 2015, and now charts;

GPRO april 29 2015GPRO oct 29 2015

We were asleep again and did not look at this stock. See our previous blog. Recently we got the rebound level in both the Dow and the S&P dead wrong so it is heart warming that we did get this one right. That is so far at least. The then suggested target of $24 may, however, be way too high. $5 is a possibility if both A and C legs become equal in size. It appears that we are in a 5th wave of C which should take the stock to about $20 as a minimum. Time will tell.

Zenbanx , a very good deal , update

Zenbanx oct 24 2015

zenbanx oct 24 2015 2

Again one of these pop-up advertisements popped up on my screen the other day. As I have always admired the gentleman behind the “save your money” Ing Bank stuff, I took a little time to read through this.

In financial services as almost everywhere else it is all about branding. I you are thinking of cowboys running after cows with hot irons to plant a big Z on their derrieres, you have caught the essence of branding spot on. It is the marketing practice of creating a name, symbol or design that identifies and differentiates a product from other products. The “target” group in this case are the citizens of the World. Not sure, but I think I might qualify having lived, and in most cases, worked, in Holland, Indonesia, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada. Most of the rest I travelled to. But I do not use a mobile device.

   Marketing is a tricky business. One of the Saatchi brothers was my neighbour in St. John’s Wood in London. They were  extremely successful but one or two missteps brought them to their knees. You have to capture the mood and get it perfectly right.

   As a kid in the early 60-ties we used to drive from Istanbul to Holland, at times through countries that were then behind the iron curtain. On one of these occasions we drove through Stuttgart in order to pick-up a spanking new Mercedes. You know these cars from the star that is on the hood, you get so accustomed to it that you even wonder if the car can drive without it. No marketing type would dream of taking it off.

As we frequently drove the hairpins of the Alps, my father bought an air horn to compete with the many trucks. We were going to install it ourselves while staying at Schloss Itter.  An air horn has a relatively heavy electric motor and consequently uses two circuits, one to switch it on and another to carry the high Amp. load. The relay is where the two connect.  Zenbanx, being the brand part, is the equivalent of the switch circuit. The heavy duty stuff is farmed out to a partner that has the bank credentials.

So how does this work?  You open an account (no cost), put in $150 + and go X-mas shopping using your debit card (no point of sale costs) and buy 3 separate items of $50 +. Any combination will do. In January you will receive a credit for $50.  During the ride you get 1.5% interest. That is a certain return of 30+% between Thanksgiving (Can. Oct 12.) and the New Year. This is good only for the first 5000 new clients. Should Zenbanx succeed, it will cost them, roughly, 5000 X $50 = $250,000.  Where does it come from? I guess I don’t get the “zin” of it but nevertheless wish them all the best.