DUCA, why you should not buy investment shares!

Duca sept. 2015

This is an extract from the mid-year “Management Discussion and Analysis”.  You will be disappointed if you expected either a discussion or an analysis. The same report last year was also fairly brief but the year before that it was 17 pages rather than the present 4. As they say in Dutch, what the heart is full of, the mouth flows over with. Apparently the zenith in optimism has long past Duca.

Last year, Dec 31, 2014 ZBC that was capitalized at $10 mln. recorded a loss of $3.910 mln. This year, for the first 6 months it was 5.7 mln. Since inception ZBC has lost $9.61 mln. Duca’s share at 60% is roughly 5.8mln. The equity left in the joint venture is just a few hundred thousand dollars, presumable barely enough at today’s burnrate to meet payroll requirements for the remainder of the year. No problem as the former Vice Chair of Duca’s board, who is now on ZBC’s board, unelected, can call, per contract and at her pleasure, on both Duca and ZBH for additional capital infusions as needed, much like the proverbial tail wagging the dog. This is not all. Duca owns a few million dollars worth of shares in the US partner ZBH (Holdings) as an investment. Why Duca has this equity position has not been explained anywhere. Already, at last year end, a loss of 1.2 mln. had been recorded. No mention of the present value. Admin cost have been running unusually high and it is not that difficult to infer that at least 1 mln. was spent on ZBC. This is what we know, not what we do not know, but that brings us to a total of 8 mln. for Duca in just one single year.

Little information has been provided concerning the arrangement with ZBH. Our understanding is that both parties can cancel the deal after only two years. Should that happen Duca will have helped ZBH to the tune of 15 mln. or so and have little to show for it as the “brand” is not theirs. This is every investment advisors secret goal, that is to make your money and my experience into my money and your experience.

Sales are not moving along as fast as Duca would have liked. Despite all hands on deck to flog the stuff only about 1/2 of the first 1000 clients/members eligible (not by the offering memo!) for the 1% cash rebate have stepped forward. The same seems to be true for the FX services ZBC is to provide. So far not even a glimmer of hope has been presented on this score despite the two to three months that have passed since the launch. When the phone goes, just say “no thank you”.

P.S. The argument has been advanced , as is the case also in this mid-year report, that the losses are “start-up costs” and that give or take 10 mln. is not a bad price to pay for a whole new franchise that will propel Duca forward for years. However, that all this was somehow anticipated and planned does not sit well with the fact that last year’s mid-year report contains not a single reference to this adventure which had already been in the making for quite some time.

GWO update

The usual then, July 2013, and now charts;

gwo july 5 2013gwo aug 30 2015

For some inexplicable reason we were anticipating a high of about $35. This is neither the double-top level, or the point where c is equal to a of the B wave. The logical target would have been about $37.The actual top of the B-wave was at $37.70. Aside from that the pattern was correct all though , at the time, it would seem rather unreasonable to have expected this to take another two years and a month.

The drop does not look like much but it is almost 20%. Also it erased all the progress of the past two years in little over a month. The channel is broken and we think the trek down to below $10 has started. This was the best performing insurer so the others will , no doubt, follow suite. If you did nothing over the past two years, now is the time to sell. However , do not forget that this blog never, ever, gives investment advice, only discusses EW. Talk to your broker for that solid advice that you can lean on and trust! See detail below;

gwo aug 30 2015 s

TA, Transalta update

Then, a few weeks ago, and now charts as usual;

TA july 29 2015TA aug 29 2015

We had $7.50 as a target. In fact it went to $6 partly due to a “throw-over”. We see this as a buy particularly when looking at the short-term chart. In pink we show a pattern that we have talked about frequently lately, the diagonal triangle. They are classic termination patterns so a solid and perhaps violent rebound is definitely a real possibility.

FCX, Freeport-McMoRan Inc update and copper

First the then, Dec. 2012 and June 24th, 2015, and now charts.

FCX dec 2012FCX june 23 2015fcx aug 29 2015

We were bearish for a lot longer, please also see older blogs, but back in 2012 we set a credible EW target of about $10 and for copper itself of $2.20. FCX with the “Greenberg” deposit in Indonesia is, as far as we know, still the largest copper producer in the World. The $10 target derives from equality  between the C and A legs but did not create a new low, that is below the $8.40 of 2009. We got that with the $7.76 low last week. Copper, see chart below,then, Dec. 2012 and now, conveniently complied by dropping precisely to the $2.20 level.

copper dec 2012copper aug 29 2015

We do not know if Karl Icahn is an avid reader of this blog – we know there are 40.000 but we do not know who they are individually – but supposing he is  and did  take the above to heart and bought an eight and one half percent stake in FCX. If he bought at the low he is now up 25%, not bad for two days work. That represents about $80 mln. It could have been yours!

The 2012 A-B-C EW count for FCX is, of course, completely wrong (C waves must be 5 waves, not A-B-Cs) but the target is nevertheless accurate, at least so far..