Year: 2015

OIL, the big picture

Hamilton

OIL aug 6 2015

Our longer term view is that oil could go down quite a bit further. It is, perhaps, good to remember that the stuff traded at about $11 in 1998/9, not all that long ago. We do not need to go that low, but using vector equality a target of somewhere between $25 and $35 is definitely a very real possibility. The wave C as shown above may be missing a 1-2 and a 4-5 as there may be three of different degrees.

Presently the prevailing view seems to be that oil must go up as we continue to use more and have less. This is the logic of peak oil. Perhaps alternative energy sources combined with recognition of global warming will change that view over the next few years.

DIS, Disney

Hamilton

dis aug 6 2015

dis aug 3 2012

Three years ago, almost to the day and at about $60, there were good reasons to assume that a top was in. Not so as we were only halfway. We cannot now label this stock chart in any credible way and therefore just leave you with the picture. After all a picture is worth a thousand words.

ABX on track

Hamilton

abx aug 4 2015 babx aug 4 2015

Looks like we may reach the target of $8 Canadian or $6 US. If we do the stock will have dropped something like 90% in US terms and actually a little less in Canadian terms. I like the large chart as it demonstrates what a C wave will ultimately look like. We will have quite a number of them.

WPT, Westport Innovations update

Hamilton

WPT aug 04 2015 lwpt aug 04 2015 s

In the big picture this stock appears to have completed a large A-B(orX)-C down. Appears is the operative word here. No new low was ever made, it fell short by $0.53, but that does not necessarily disqualify the count. From that low it doubles very rapidly in what we assume is a first wave up. It then retraces most of that, as it should, in a second wave. Next is wave 3, or at worst c, that should try to close the gap. A drop now would negate this count but leave open the simple a-b-c correction with roughly similar targets.