Month: July 2017

DOW update

Hamilton

dow july 31 2017

Today is the last day of the month. Typically this is good for 100 points or so to the upside in the Dow, intraday or for the day. Just a few days ago Amazon hit a new high, together with some of the other FANG stocks. Briefly Jeff Bezos beat out Bill Gates as the richest man in the US, perhaps even the world provided that stories about Putin’s wealth are untrue.

AMZN has dropped about 10% since. At the peak the P/E was close to 200, which is another way of saying that if you do buy the stock, it will take you 200 years to get your money back. On the political front a New York businessman, actually a fund of funds outfit’s principal , a bad business at this time sold at too high a price to a Chinese firm according to rumours, survived only eleven days of the White House. While his wife gave birth during that time and filed for divorce, he demonstrated his knowledge of the English vernacular. In any event there is no chaos in the white house and the economy is doing extraordinarily well as witnessed by the stock market.

Could this maybe be a top of sorts? Clearly the RSI is back up there for the first time in 5 months. There are 5 waves up and the 5th is equal to the first. The trend line was broken today. We would play it safe here and get out. First drop could be about 600 points, next 1600 points. After that we will see.

ABX update

Hamilton

In our most recent blog we had ABX as a sell around $30. Well here we are now;

abx july 24 2017

We are well on our way to the target (see previous blog). Look for C=A, base of diagonal wave 5 at just a little above $16 and 61% retracement of the $8 to $30 leg which is somewhere between $16 and $17. Also the RSI should be below the 30% line.

HCG update

Hamilton

hcg july 24 2017

It has taken a fortnight – that is 14 nights in case you grew up on this side of the pond –, a long time if you are waiting for it but here we are. It appears that we completed an A-B-C correction down right into our target of below $13. (see our previous blog). Not only did we do that but we hit the 50-day moving average and we are ending today with a beautiful Japanese candlestick formation known as a Doji, in this case a Hammer. This is supposed to announce a reversal! If you bought at $13 your patience is already rewarded but things should get a lot better in the next little while. Just back to where we were a fortnight ago generates a return of roughly 50% but we would expect higher prices than that.

AC update from about two years ago, WJA

Hamilton

The usual then and now charts;

ac july 29 2015 bAC july 11 2017 b

So we got the drop from $15 to $5 pretty well  on target except that it did not quite get there stopping at about $7 instead. But we ignored the stock for the simple reason that we basically do not understand why anyone would want to own any airline stock!

Now, with the benefit of hindsight, we are leaning towards discarding the original count all together. The peak at $15 was not the end of a 5-wave sequence, just the end of wave 3, or, alternatively, we were not even in a bull market and what we are looking at is actually an A-B-C for a larger B-wave counter-trend rally which now has reached the double top level and may, therefore be complete. Additionally the A and C sub parts are now equal at least in terms of gains in the stock, each at about $14. This stock should be sold here and now.

WJA or Westjet is thrusting from some sort of triangle and may have a little more to go, perhaps up to $27 but it should then also be sold.

WJA july 11 2017