WAG, Walgreen update

Hamilton

Again the usual then – Dec. 21, 2012 – and now pictures;

WAG dec 20 2012wag july 27 2013

Yes we got this one badly wrong thinking the B-wave was done mid 2011 at about $44. Instead our friends at the Fed. and the plunge-protection-team, managed to extend the whole process by a full two years and another $8 ($52-$44). The interesting  moral of this story is that despite being dead wrong it is nevertheless often possible to have a better result by actively trying. In this example (see previous blogs) we have a sell at $44, a buy at $31 and again a sell at $38. That equates to a gain of $20 over a year and a bit. Had you held the position from b onward you would now have a gain of $8 over a period of two years. Being active would have given a return roughly twice as good as staying put!

Now that the stock is back at the double top level (twice already!), it is definitely a sell, even if you are only just breaking even from seven years ago.

Samsung Electronics update

Hamilton

The usual then – June 11, 2013 – and now charts;

Samsung Electronics Co. Ltdsamsung july 27 2013

It may not look like much but Samsung has now lost 25% or 400 points. The first target is 1100k, but ultimately the stock could drop to 400k. It is the standard Schumpeter “creative destruction” process starting all over again in another country. The decline started slowly at the beginning of this year and looks like a small triangle but that simple cannot be. Instead it is probable a series of 1-2s which promises a rather rapid move down. A break of 1100k would all but confirm this scenario.

SBUX update

Hamilton

sbux july 26 2013

There were some good calls and some that were not that good, please see previous blogs. But here we are now solidly back in the old channel  and trading at a P/E close to 35x. We are not sure how to count this one other than to assume that from the lows a 5th wave unfolded. It should be close to completion if not already there. A sell at $75 for sure and given today’s high of $73.50, why wait?

POT, update

Hamilton

Then – Oct. 2012 -, and now as usual;

pot b oct 2012pot july 25 2013

Today we reached $37, quite a way down from the peak and also from the top of the B-wave at about $65. The stock should go much lower if our pattern analysis is correct. After almost two years of doing next to nothing the process should accelerate to the downside.