WLT, Walter Industries Inc. or the omnipresent B-wave. BTU

wlt jul 2012

A nice 5 wave sequence can be counted into the 2008 high of $110. Some might, of course , argue that the B-wave shown is actually the 5th wave and that the top is at $143. That is impossible as overlap would have occurred! Furthermore the B-wave is nearly perfect, travelling a total of $133 and subdividing in two, almost equal parts off by only a few dollars. A B it is and here we are well into C. In fact C is already equal to A and could be considered complete were it not that it normally stops below the start of A, normally reaches at least the 4th wave of previous degree level and often reaches the lowest boundary line at about $15. It has done none of this.

wlt jul 2012 s

The C wave can be counted either as a 1-2-3-4 triangle-5 and should then soon be complete, or as an a-triangle b-c zig-zag which has quite a bit to go. $30 is almost assured under either scenario. We will keep an eye on it and also (see elsewhere and below) BTU which has a very similar pattern even if some details are different;

BTU jul 2012

See our Oct. blog that was dead on.

CVX, Chevron

cvx jul 2012 arithcvx jul 2012 log

oil 2012

Chevron is among the biggest integrated oil companies. Here is the chart , both arithmetic and semi-log. The small chart is oil itself, just the last 5 years; obviously there is no correlation!

The count may need some adjusted but in the big picture it is probable more or less spot on. A drop to about $60 would be normal. Big trouble would start at about $80 where the stock would drop out of its 40 year channel.  We expect that it will;

cvx jul 2012 s

This is the 5th wave up, it starts a little earlier but I cannot get this chart for free for more than 3 years. One thing that is very definitive is the wedge at the top. It almost guarantees a drop at least to the first target of $85 or so. Time will tell.

Little lies and big lies

Barclay’s got fined $445 mln.US $ for putting it’s finger on the scale of LIBOR. Interbank offered rates are over-the-counter (OTC) and consequently are not conducted in broad daylight. Normally there is a neutral observer, usually one of the larger intermediaries ( like Telerate, Reuters, Prebon whatever) that keeps score all day long. Most often there is no closing price. In other cases, such as with FX rates a formal session called a fixing is held at a designated time and place,  during which, over a very short period of time, the major parties get an opportunity to behave like animals and rig the system as much as possible in their advantage. In equity markets, that do operate on an exchange, all manner of manipulations are common and accepted as inevitable unless they become overwhelming by their sheer size.

What is particularly interesting in my view, is the indignation politicians always show when they question the perpetrators. www.shadowstats.com is a great website that makes it its business to expose what governments (the US, and others of course) do consistently and deliberately to pull the wool over our eyes. Here are two examples;

Unemployement 2012 julcpi jul 2012

The unemployment rate in the States is running at about 23% if you account for it the old-fashioned way. Looks a little like Spain and is double that of the Eurozone. Understating unemployment lowers what is paid out in insurance as that is often a function of the overall rate, and puts the populace in a better mood. The difference between 8.2 and 23 % is pretty large.  CPI is another important statistic as it determines what is paid under numerous social programs. Remember back in the late 70ties when inflation was running at 13%, there were COLAs everywhere and Volcker  was the white night riding to the rescue. Notice that in 2008 we were not far from that situation and presently the CPI is at about 9% not 2%. The main difference then and now is comprised of a few changes in the computation. Substitution, if you were accustomed to eat caviar with breakfast but now have to settle for kippers because you cannot afford the 5000% increase in price, we just continue to use herring prices instead. Housing, rather than buying a house you are assumed to be renting your own house. During the run-up in by more than 100% from 2000 to 2006, rents actually dropped so CPI went down. Expect them to change this soon. The hedonistic approach, your Atari used to have 1000 of those things, your new computer has 10 terabytes and consequently, since the price has gone down from $2000 to $1000 but the power up by 1000x your new computer only costs $1 on an adjusted basis. Interest rates are presently running at about –7/8%, no wonder investors are crying foul but no indignation from the politicians or even most of the press.