Same story!
EMP.A Sobey’s
Same story!
QCOM
Right on the dot, this stock started falling (see previous blog). It is now down about 20% but nowhere near its first target of $30 or so, the base of the 5th wave wedge. We had a target of about $66 for a top. It got a few dollars above that but is already breaking down below the wedge boundary. As per the previous blog expect a first target at around $35 and probable lower after that.
AVL, Avalon Rare Metals Inc. update ……………………. a screaming buy!!
On the 15th of June this stock made a low of $1.39, I did not catch it immediately but better a little late than never. Here are the charts;
This stock has followed a text-book EW sequence.We are not that concerned about the move up, much of which is not on this chart. Suffice it to say that the top is at about $8 at the start of 2011. The stock then goes higher in a very clear B-wave to make a higher, irregular top. Then it collapses in the C-wave which must always subdivide in five waves. It does and very nicely. To make things even easier we get a very nice triangle, which are always in the 4th wave (or B-wave) position. The triangle itself subdivides clearly in 5 waves, all of which consist of 3 waves. The triangle’s measure (the blue arrow) is precisely equal to the distance travelled in the minor 5th wave. Moreover it makes it’s low right under the apex of the triangle. In the meantime the RSI was oversold and the MACD did not confirm the new lows for quite some time. We can conclude with a great degree of certainty that the entire A-B-C correction was complete at the low of $1.39 on the 15th of June.
Even if a new bull market for this stock has not yet started , we would expect a rebound , retracing all of the 5th wave (where e topped), at about $3. More normal would be the top of the triangle at $4. Consequently, with a high level of probability (say 95+%) this stock will , at the very least, double over the next two months or less.
Fundamentally speaking China is the main producer at present, but they recently showed signs of wanting to keep much of the available stuff to themselves. In the meantime others, like MCP (Molycorp) and QRM (Quest Rare Minerals) are working on opening new mines and have a roughly similar chart;
With both these two stocks a better count might actually be a double zig-zag or a-b-c X a-b-c ( not shown) which would also conclude a single correction comparable to AVL but without the irregular top. In the case of QRM the triangle would, in that event, not be a 4th wave but a B-wave in the second a-b-c.
The World and Canada.
These are the various country indices available under the iShare symbol EW.. . For the most part they are logical, EWG is for Germany and EWI is for Italy. There are exceptions as in Brazil which is EWZ. There are 17 shown here together with the S&P and the DOW. Click on them to enlarge and the country name will be more visible.
All charts have an arbitrary 10-year time-frame. Therefore what you see pertains to that specific time-frame only. For instance, we all know that you haven’t made a dime being in the S&P for the past ten years. That is not true, because ten years ago the S&P was at such a low that you did make money. It is over twelve years that you made nothing.
A number of things are patently clear looking at these charts. For all of them 2003 (the second column) was the low, and nearly all peaked in the 5th column (Brazil being the exception). Most hit the lows in early 2009 (again Brazil is the sole exception). From the lows the vast majority go up in a clear 3-wave A-B-C counter-trend B-wave. Very clear are Switzerland , Germany and Taiwan. Not so clear Spain and Brazil. The S&P and DOW seem to have one leg too many. In the process Sweden and Switzerland “double-top”, give or take. Italy, France and Spain do not even make it to the halfway point. Mexico, of all places, does best and even manages a knew high (maybe). If it did it is the only one, with Switzerland,to do so! Together with the S&P and the Dow, Mexico actually manages to pretty well stay up there. Little wonder that the Telefonos de Mexico fellow is now the richest man. All these indices are expressed in US dollars as that is the currency the EW.. is quoted in. 20 in one chart becomes unreadable but here are 5 of the main ones;
Relative to the starting point 10 years ago, the USA, the United Kingdom, Spain and Germany, despite large variances in the interim, end up more or less in the same spot, that is up 15 to 35%. Up un till the peak Spain , and Canada a close second, were the star performers. Today Canada is all alone up there at 135%. For a long time both countries poured a lot of concrete and we are still doing it! Of course Canada is so well managed that we now can teach the Europeans how to do it. The moral of the story “Pride goes before the fall”. And, diversification is not what it used to be.
P.S. In case this is not clear, B-waves are counter-trend rallies and ergo new lows should be made afterwards. Also the charts can not only be enlarged but also moved so that you can compare any set of two.