See previous blogs. For reasons mentioned before we think this is a stock to own for the longer term, but that does not mean that one should not try to get it at the lowest possible price. The EW count would suggest that we are most likely about to go into a minor wave 4 and after that we should have a 5th. This would take the stock to just under $10. A similar level is obtained by using the “gap-in-the-middle” approach. Time will tell.
We have steadfastly maintained that Siemens would , at the very least, trade down to $81 on the ADRs. It has. This level corresponds with the lows of the B in the larger B wave (actually more like $79). We do not expect it to stop here – after all the large B wave suggests a new low sometime in the future – but the count is presently not entirely clear and actually differs slightly from the DAX itself. Both charts are roughly equal, on both we are, very roughly , in the middle of the last 5-year range, but whereas the DAX sports a rather distinct wave 2 from last year’s Oct. lows, Siemens does not. Both are still pointing down.
Goldcorp has a very confusing structure. What we do know for certain is that 4th waves do not overlap with 2d waves (with one single exception). Goldcorp is up almost 305 from the lows and is about to move into the territory of the 2d waves at three different degrees, when and if it does the bull outcome would become more likely. For the moment, who knows.
Fastenal does exactly what the name says it does, that is make metal bolts, screws, and all sorts of other fasteners. Not exactly a sexy business but, as it happens, it was the best performing stock since 1987 or something like that, better even than AAPL , PCLN or AZO (see below). Using EW for stocks that are on their way to the moon is always a little difficult as no chart exists. This is the same reason why shorting stocks can be a lot more dangerous than simple owning them; your risk is unlimited. Nevertheless , and despite being dead wrong on Autozone, here is a try. Using a semi-log chart it is clear that the stock stayed in a relatively narrow channel for the past 20+ years and just recently hit the top line for a third time.
Looking at the normal chart it is easy (even if perhaps incorrect) to come up with a plausible 5 wave count. Looking forward as they say, EW would call for a drop to the 4th wave of previous degree at about $15. A bounce off the trend-line now would be “normal” but not a certainty. If you own it we suggest you do so with a very,very, tight stop.
