FCX Freeport McMoran

This mine is the largest gold mine and third largest copper mine. It is situated in Papua province of Indonesia, almost on a par with the Congo as a vacation destination except that there are still real head hunters. This thing is pretty big;

grasbergFCX jan 2012

The mine, situated on the Grasberg, or better yet , in it, is huge and the grass long gone. There have been disputes with the locals which in Indonesia is pretty well chronic. Due partly to strikes etc. the latest quarter’s earnings were down by 59%. The stock this year is down 50% at the lows. Looking at the chart more of that should be anticipated. Here are the details;

fcx m jan 2012fcx s jan 2012

A argument could be made that the second top is the real one, if so it would be a “failed” top. It is not a great concern either way except if the stock rises any higher than today as that would make the initial drop an a-b-c instead of a first wave. The stock has regained about 60% by way of an a, triangle b and c. If we use the second, failed top the stock could still go a little higher but it certainly does not have to, seeing that it is at the 200 day moving average. If long we would sell here.

The triangles, MIB Italy and MS Morgan Stanley.

MIB jan 19 2012MS jan 19 2012

The triangle in the MIB, Italian Index is holding up so far despite some initial reservations. On MS the triangle is completely negated by today’s rise above the preceding leg. It does not , however , then follow that the stock will keep shooting up.There are a number of other counts that are still bearish. Considering that we are looking to buy this stock, the action is annoying to say the least.

BNS, RY spread (pairs) trade.

We already exited this trade, either as a spread or BNS long only. Patience is not our strongest suit. Had you waited the results would be even better today, as BNS trades at a higher price than RY, by almost a dollar!

BNS jan 19 2012RY jan 19 2012

Both are now either at or above the 200 day moving average. BNS clearly caught up with the RY. Things could still get a little better but we certainly do not recommend sticking around. The pairs trade would have earned about 7/8% and the BNS long only well over 20%, in absolute terms, not per annum!

DAX update

DAX bloomberg 2012 jan

Today’s intraday high of 6389.99 is just a few hundred points shy of a perfect 61.8% retracement of the down wave with a range of 4966 to 7600. Waves C and A are almost vector equal. So the answer to the question, “are we there yet?” is a resounding maybe.

For comparison purposes we have added the S&P below;

spx bloomberg jan 2012