JPM, JPMorgan Chase

Hamilton

jpm b 2011 jpm s 2011

JP Morgan, the virtual central banker of the US before there was one, earned something like 4 bln. on revenues of 24 bln. That is approximately what all the Canadian banks combined do, but from what I heard it was a lukewarm result, whatever. For some reason I have not had JPM on a blog before but looking at it again today, I struck me that this bank has moved almost precisely the way RY has.See below.

RY 0ct13 2011 RYs oct 13 2011

Both are very confusing.. All the tops are so close that one needs a looking glass to figure out which is which. This could be an almost 2 year  a-b-c if you want to get bullish but that does not fit the (my) big picture well. An alternative, just thinking out loud, is that we completed wave 3 Wave 4 cannot trade above $35 or there would be overlap, un less of course , we are forming a huge wedge, the only structure where that would be possible. We will keep an eye on it as this leg down just seems to be too long for a first (single) wave.

BP update

Hamilton

bp oct 2011

Mid Sept this was a buy even if the entire count was unclear. At the time it was suggested that the stock could go to $42. The flat correction turned out to be irregular and consequently the stock briefly dropped below the $35 level. To play it save it should be sold today at the close or at $40 for a 15% gain.

NAE, NAL Energy Corp.

Hamilton

NAE l NAE s

This energy company warns that oil may just do a little better than I would have expected; or it is living a life of its own. This one gave back all of the rally since March of 2009, short of a single dollar. It was down a rather precise 62% from the highs of about $14. More importantly the drop looks to be a fairly clear 5-wave sequence suggesting it should trade back to about $10.40, the top of a triangle wave 4. I would wait to see if it drops back a dollar or more.

CAN$

Hamilton

can$ oct 2011

We were targeting 92cents on March the 18th, if you sold at 102 you would have been up about 10% at the lows, but the target had not yet been reached. It remains at 92 cents as that is either the low point of a triangle or the start of a 5th wave (normal or wedge). Using the gap in the middle also suggests a drop to that level. The rebound from 94 looks pretty violent but that is the nature of FX. Even if the top is put in the wrong place (it could actually be the earlier top) the move down is a c-wave and therefore has to subdivide in 5 separate legs. It clearly has not done that (yet).