LXK, Lexmark

Hamilton

lxk july 26 2011

July 5th this stock looked like a screaming buy. The only caveat was that it was still conceivable that the stock could drop to $25 ( it had already reached $26.63).This would be a likely event if there was a triangle in the a-b-c correction down. With the benefit of hindsight it is clear that there was no triangle so the low had already been reached. For those that bought rather than wait for an extra dollar or two things have worked out well. Today the stock is up 20.27% to $ 34.85. The stock should reach $40, and if the analysis was correct, a lot higher.

TRE, Sino Forest

Hamilton

tre july 26 2011

BigCharts shows better. Wave 3 of the drop, invariable the one with the big gap, is rather easy to identify especially since the gap is pretty well in the middle. This , however, leaves the possibility that the 5-wave sequence is not yet complete as there is at least one, if not two, waves before wave 3 starts. This leaves the possibility that we are presently in a 4th wave. One can never be certain but the up move from the lows very definitely looks like an a-b-c. If you did buy , as advised, and are still holding it, I would sell at about $8.30 if it gets there, otherwise use a stop-loss at , say, $6.45, just under today’s low.

TRE, Sino Forest update

Hamilton

TRE MAY8 2010 TRE june 24 2011  TRE june 14 2011 TRE July 4 2011

These are some of the old recommendations, click on charts  and they will get larger. You can also find the entire blogs by going to the index. We recommended a sell at about $5 simple because that was a huge gain in a very short time and because an a-b-c correction could have been complete at that time. It did drop 50% from there so what is going on now?

tre july 2011

When a stock drops in a 5 wave sequence one should expect a A-B-C correction, this can be simple or complex. We did the A from a $1.29 low to $5.30 or $4,01. Then wave B cut that in half to $3.36. B should continue up to $8.37 where C=A ( 3.36 + 4.01 = 8.37). The gap starts at $ 8.53 so it may try that as well.  Ultimately higher levels are certainly possible. $13.57 would close the gap and that is just a 50% retracement but all this is pure speculation. Stick to the sure stuff.