FVI , FR , HZU all silver.

Hamilton

FVI apr 20111

Got this one wrong the first time, thought it was a sell at the red arrow. In the meantime it has added 2 waves and now one can count 9 in total which may, once again herald the end of the sequence. See also the charts for FR , First Majestic and the Hor Betapro 2X ETF;

FR 2011 HZU 2011

FR also has this 9 wave sequence, numbered as the normal 5-waves bull market. It too may be complete or close to that. HZU is a little new to the plate but may actually be contributing to this momentum action. It is nearly vertical as we approach the Hunt brothers $55 peak back in the early eighties. We may not reach that level.

R Romarco

Hamilton

r apr 2011

Speaking of missing the boat, targets on this stock may just be a little too low. It has completed the necessary structure and consequently may not reach the “normal” lows. Patients is always in short supply but you can do your own math to see if it is worth jumping the gun. Once this one bottoms it should rebound to $2.50, but buying at $1.70 instead of $1.40 makes a great deal of difference in your return.

G WG, Goldcorp G Warrants.

Hamilton

See our Jan 28 blog on Goldcorp and the warrant. The argument then was that if you like a stock and expect it to go up, do not buy it, buy the warrant instead. The expectation was that Goldcorp would drop from $49 to $36. It did most of that but stopped at $39 and as a result the warrant never reached the anticipated low of $1. It made it to $1.61 and we missed buying it. Here is the chart;

GWG 2011

The expectation was that the warrant would triple. Despite not reaching the low of $1 it did triple and then some. The stock itself has gained a little more than 30% since then. The moral is that missing the boat may cost, even if it is only an opportunity!

AA

Hamilton

We did very well with this stock. Bought it at the low and sold it at $17+ for  a threefold increase. Then we forgot to look at it again which is rather unfortunate as the stock behaved in a very predictable fashion. Here are the charts;

aa apr 12 2011 AA apr 12 2011 s

It is by no means clear if the first or the second top was THE top. In the latter case (green) a multi-year triangle as a 4th wave fits between the two tops. In the former case (blue) the “orthodox” top is the first one with a large B-wave creating the second top. Fortunately, for the moment at least, it does not make one iota difference which interpretation is correct as in either case the big drop following should be 5 waves. Today we may have completed a 4th wave in the form of a nice A-B-C. It is still possible that the C leg could go a dollar or two higher but I doubt it. It is quite amazing that this stock added so little over the year and a bit after we sold. Perhaps it was less inclined to partake in the intoxicating punch-bowl served by the Fed, as indeed it’s ticker symbol would suggest. In any case it should go to a new low. By the way the P/E is running at about 77!