S&P (SPX)

Hamilton

SPX Oct 2010

The S&P, actually the SPX, reached the perfect point today as well. The A-B-C corrective move has traced out a near perfectly symmetric pattern and has exceeded the target (see the World) calculated a week or two ago at 1144 ( the 61.8% retracement) by a relatively small fraction, and only for the second time for the past week. We will see if it holds and if it means anything at all.

The 20+ points up today was supposedly the result of the Japanese Central Bank lowering it’s rates, this time to zero. Why that is good is beyond me as they started this process 20+ years ago to no avail. Also the ISM services index was up a percent or two, barely above 50%. It was not that long ago that most of us had not even heard of this indicator, let alone assign any credibility to it.

The Russell 2000 is trading at 688, 2 points above the calculated target of 686. In the mean time the CAC, AEX and SMI are trading well below these values. Time will tell. Below is the TSE also completing a possible wedge.

tsx oct 2010

TSE

Hamilton

tse sept 29

Clearly a new high today, higher than in April by 10.20 points but nevertheless higher. Perhaps the wedge is operative, we will see.

I have had a look at the Hang Seng index, the Shanghai index , the Bovespa, the Swiss MSI, the Dutch AEX, the FTSE, the Australian all ordinaries , the Dax (that did make a brief new high weeks ago) and a half dozen other stock market indexes. We are the only one making a new high today!! Not sure why.

TSE perfect a-b-c correction!

Hamilton

TSE SEPT28 2010

As per today’s high the correction is perfectly symmetric, the C leg is vector equal to the A leg. It is also a mere 40 points below the April highs.  Both the MACD and RSI seem to be topping .For the immediate bear scenario it cannot really go any higher. Should it do so, then I would suggest the wedge is operative and the top should then be formed a little higher but under 12500.

IVN , Ivanhoe

Hamilton

This stock has, as expected, done exceptionally well. In the last comment , done in Febr. of this year, I mentioned a second leg down was required before the stock would go up again. We did get that second leg down as part of an irregular flat and did make new lows but not quite to the level of $11 as it only managed $13. Did not look at it again until today;

ivn sept 24 2010

The RSI is right up there with the MACD and most importantly we are at the trend-line. This COULD be 5 waves up but the last leg may still extend after a pause. To be prudent I would sell here even recognizing that the stock could still go much higher. As the longer term chart indicates, these mining stocks have their season,see below.

ivn sept 24 2010 2