TSE, March 9, a year later.

Hamilton

TSE March 9 2010

About a year ago we mentioned that the TSE should, applying EW probabilities, retrace either 38% (about 10400), 50% (about 11250) and , most likely  61.8% (about 12100) Higher levels are, of course, possible but not probable.  Today the TSE is up 58% and early January it briefly hit 60+%, the Dow Jones is up 61.18% at the opening this morning. Nasdaq 84%.

However you slice it this correction is most probable done. Momentum is terrible, just consider that since early June the TSE did not move much gravitating to about 11000 all the time. Certainty is not a luxury we have in trading the market but now is clearly, or 2 months ago,  an excellent time to start shorting this index.

OTC, Open Text, March 2010.

Hamilton

OTC March 8, 2010

The stock did briefly get to $52 and even if there still is a very small possibility that the stock has not yet completed its “thrust” from the triangle this is a short as the stock should trade back to at the very least the apex (about $40), and more likely to the lowest point in the triangle (about $35). The technical indicators are already trending down.

TM, Toyota. March 2010

Hamilton

TM March 2010

Toyota is acting to form, assuming this is a correction (it may in fact be a new bull market), simple because that is the least aggressive assumption, one would expect an a-b-c up which is exactly what is happening. The target remains around the $80/82 level. c=a, 50% retracement, wave 4 of previous degree etc. etc., do not be surprised if it reaches the higher end of this range.

TS.B , Torstar March 2010

Hamilton

We commented on this one on Feb 15 when the stock was at about $6.20. It reported earnings that were not at all bad and now is trading at  $8.20 +, perhaps this time about 30% is enough, however , the stock will go higher. The exact count escapes me but I assume we had a 1-2, 1-2 to start the 08/09 drop and consequently there would be a 4-5, 4-5 to finish it of. That leaves us with , at a minimum , an incomplete a-b-c up, usually to the 4th wave and about 38%, neither of which has yet happened. Also there is a gap at about $7.40; these occur often in the middle. Here are the charts.

Torstar 2 March 2010 Torstar March 2010

$10 is probable worth waiting for, $16 is posssible but do use a trailing stop-loss order.

By the way, I read that RBC DS has become extraordinary bullish on Bombardier. About time considering that this is the infrastructure stock par excellence.