TSE , DAX and S&P

Today the TSE traded at or above the 12135 level consistently for the first time. This is the level that we mentioned, now more than a year ago, as a very good possibility for a retracement.  I myself did not have the patience to wait this long, expecting the whole thing to take about half as much time as it has, so it is not clearly something that one could have traded to the fullest, after all after 50% who really knows. Now that we are here probabilities are turning to the negative, which is not to say that the market cannot go (a lot?) higher, but that the likelihood of that happening is very low.

Further more its is interesting to note that not just the TSE but also the DAX and the S&P are, roughly speaking, at the very same spot right at this time. We are talking indexes, not individual stocks so some discretion is required but the conclusion should be to sell just about everything!

TSE April1 2010 DAX April1 2010

 S&P April1 2010

Remember, you can enlarge these charts by clicking on them and you can then put them side by side if you wish.

F March 2010

Today the TSE met the 61.8% retracement that we have been waiting for for so long. Actually, by coincidence the S&P 500 did pretty well the exact same retracement. A few ticks here or there is always possible tomorrow or Friday but we like to take our que from Ford. As you are aware we had a potential to $14/15 where wave 4 of previous degree resides. Here is the chart;

f march 2010

Again on the basis of the diagonal triangle the stock needed to go at least to $9.60, beyond that the 4th of previous degree  at $14+ was a logical target. We are there either by way of an a-b-c correction (implying Ford is still going under), or by way of an initial 5 –wave move for a new bull market. What now. In the most positive scenario , where this is a new bull, expect a pull-back to the triangle $11 and then to wave 4 at $7. Wave 2 could and usually does erase at least 62% of the initial impulse which would take us to around $6. In short, if still in waiting for the last possible dollar is not recommended. This despite Moody’s late credit upgrade. Ask yourself if you are a contrarian or just another lemming, when the stock was at $1 nobody would touch it, now at $14 + it is second best to sliced bread, chose your own poison.

TS.B March 14, 2010

TS.B March 12 2010

That was good enough for us, sold at $9.90 just under the $10 target, almost 60% in a month in this market triggers the “how could I be so lucky” mindset. The stock not only reached its first target  but did it in a very nice 5-wave move, adhering to the basic Fibonacci ratio of 6 to 10. Moreover the technical indicators, RSI and MACD are clearly at extremes. If you are not yet out sell on the open Monday.

MCD, McDonalds, update March 2010

MCD March 2010

As mentione a few weeks ago, this stock should be shorted. In the meantime, and this has been so typical of the present market , the stock has done essentially nothing, staying suspended at these lofty levels. Anyway at $66 this one should be well done, both the RSI and the MACD are not confirming the latest attempts at marginally higher highs. Stay short.