BTU, Peabody Energy update.

btu oct 2011btu oct 24 2012

The then (a year ago)& now as usual. The stock did precisely as expected , peaking the next day at $47.27 but the stock only dropped to just under $19, shy of the target that we would have had derived from the big chart (see below) Given that the RSI and MACD are already very high we suspect that the sequence may not yet be complete. It is possible that we are presently about to complete a wave 4 with 5 still to go.

btu oct 24 2012 b

Teck seems to be following the same pattern, they are of course also in the coal business;

tck.b oct 24 2012

WLT, Walter Industries Inc. or the omnipresent B-wave. BTU

wlt jul 2012

A nice 5 wave sequence can be counted into the 2008 high of $110. Some might, of course , argue that the B-wave shown is actually the 5th wave and that the top is at $143. That is impossible as overlap would have occurred! Furthermore the B-wave is nearly perfect, travelling a total of $133 and subdividing in two, almost equal parts off by only a few dollars. A B it is and here we are well into C. In fact C is already equal to A and could be considered complete were it not that it normally stops below the start of A, normally reaches at least the 4th wave of previous degree level and often reaches the lowest boundary line at about $15. It has done none of this.

wlt jul 2012 s

The C wave can be counted either as a 1-2-3-4 triangle-5 and should then soon be complete, or as an a-triangle b-c zig-zag which has quite a bit to go. $30 is almost assured under either scenario. We will keep an eye on it and also (see elsewhere and below) BTU which has a very similar pattern even if some details are different;

BTU jul 2012

See our Oct. blog that was dead on.

BTU, update

BTU may 15 2012

See our previous blog. We have a $12 target on this stock. The size of the triangle suggest that that is too far, but we could get an extended 5th wave which is normal for commodities including coal. Anyway we are already at about $25 which constitutes a loss of 2/3 and we are closing in on the $18 low in 2009.

BTU, Peabody Energy Corp.

These guys use the acronym for British Thermal Units as their ticker symbol , quite appropriately as they mine coal, a lot of coal. Here is the chart;

BTU

They first thing that stands out from this chart is the absolutely perfect B-wave rebound from the lows of ‘09.The symmetry is remarkable accurate to the very minute detail, adding confidence to the big picture count that we believe is operational for this stock and many others. So far the loss from the rebound high is about 50% but there is more to come.

For those that are versed in the Head & Shoulder pattern the symmetry is not quite as good but nevertheless impressive. I believe that methodology calls for a low equidistant from the parallel of the neckline, which would be around $10. The detailed chart supports this possibility;

btu s

The count leaves a few things to be desired, but the triangle , in a manner of speaking, anchors, the sequence to some extent. We should now be completing an a-b-c rebound that has already gone beyond the upper channel line and could continue to the top of the triangle, roughly $50. By that time , or even before that,  the c will equal the a (like right now) and wave 5 can start (or 4 continues as a triangle and then 5 starts).